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An Alternative Model for the Trade Balance of Countries with Open Economies: The Spanish Case

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  • Luis Sastre

    ()
    (Department of Economic Analysis (UNED))

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    Abstract

    The aim of this work is to presents an alternative to the traditional models used to explain the behaviour of the trade balance in Spain. This model could be useful for others medium sized and fairly open countries. The specification highlights both, first the simultaneous and direct interdependence of exports and imports flows, and second the countercyclical impact of the domestic demand on exports and the impact of investment on imports and some of its theoretical implications. Non linear simultaneous estimation, cointegration techniques, and a battery of specification tests are the econometric tools applied in the paper. El principal objetivo de este trabajo es ofrecer una alternativa a los modelos tradicionales utilizados para explicar el comportamiento de la balanza comercial en España, aunque el modelo presentado puede ser también útil para otras economías de tamaño medio y abiertas al exterior. La especificación utilizada destaca, en primer lugar, la interdependencia simultánea y directa de los flujos de exportación e importación, y en segundo lugar, el impacto contracíclico de la demanda interna sobre las exportaciones, y el impacto de la inversión sobre las importaciones, así como algunas de sus implicaciones teóricas. Las técnicas econométricas empleadas son ecuaciones simultáneas no lineales, cointegración y un conjunto de test de especificación.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales in its series Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales with number 02-05.

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    Length: 22 pages
    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:ucm:wpaper:02-05

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    Postal: Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales. Finca Mas Ferre Campus de Somosaguas 28223 Madrid

    Related research

    Keywords: Balance of trade; Simultaneous equations; Export and import equations; Cointegration; Balanza comercial; Ecuaciones de exportación e importación; Ecuaciones simultáneas; Cointegración.;

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