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A non-parametric and entropy based analysis of the relationship between the VIX and S&P500

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  • D.E. Allen

    ()
    (School of Accounting Finance and Economics Edith Cowan University Joondalup Drive Joondalup Western Australia 6027)

  • A. Kramadibrata

    (School of Accounting Finance and Economics Edith Cowan University Joondalup Drive Joondalup Western Australia 6027)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam.)

  • R. Powell

    ()
    (School of Accounting Finance and Economics Edith Cowan University Joondalup Drive Joondalup Western Australia 6027)

  • A. K. Singh

    (School of Accounting Finance and Economics Edith Cowan University Joondalup Drive Joondalup Western Australia 6027)

Abstract

This paper features an analysis of the relationship between the S&P500 Index and the VIX using daily data obtained from both the CBOE website and SIRCA (The Securities Industry Research Centre of the Asia Pacic). We explore the relationship between the S&P500 daily continuously compounded return series and a similar series for the VIX in terms of a long sample drawn from the CBOE running from 1990 to mid 2011 and a set of returns from SIRCA's TRTH datasets running from March 2005 to-date. We divide this shorter sample, which captures the behaviour of the new VIX, introduced in 2003, into four roughly equivalent sub-samples which permit the exploration of the impact of the Global Financial Crisis. We apply to our data sets a series of non-parametric based tests utilising entropy based metrics. These suggest that the PDFs and CDFs of these two return distributions change shape in various subsample periods. The entropy and MI statistics suggest that the degree of uncertainty attached to these distributions changes through time and using the S&P500 return as the dependent variable, that the amount of information obtained from the VIX also changes with time and reaches a relative maximum in the most recent period from 2011 to 2012. The entropy based non-parametric tests of the equivalence of the two distributions and their symmetry all strongly reject their respective nulls. The results suggest that parametric techniques do not adequately capture the complexities displayed in the behaviour of these series. This has practical implications for hedging utilising derivatives written on the VIX, which will be the focus of a subsequent study.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 2012-19.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1219

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Keywords: S&P500; VIX; Entropy; Non-Parametric Estimation; Quantile Regressions.;

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  1. Isao Ishida & Michael McAleer & Kosuke Oya, 2011. "Estimating the Leverage Parameter of Continuous-time Stochastic Volatility Models Using High Frequency S&P 500 and VIX," KIER Working Papers 759, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Do We Really Need Both BEKK and DCC? A Tale of Two Multivariate GARCH Models," Working Papers in Economics 10/06, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  3. Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Amaral, Teodosio Perez, 2013. "The rise and fall of S&P500 variance futures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 151-167.
  4. McAleer, Michael & Wiphatthanananthakul, Chatayan, 2010. "A simple expected volatility (SEV) index: Application to SET50 index options," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(10), pages 2079-2090.
  5. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine, Jeff, 2002. "Entropy and predictability of stock market returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 291-312, March.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  7. Tristen Hayfield & Jeffrey S. Racine, . "Nonparametric Econometrics: The np Package," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(i05).
  8. Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: A Primer," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(1), pages 1-88, March.
  9. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  10. Brenner, Menachem & Ou, Ernest Y. & Zhang, Jin E., 2006. "Hedging volatility risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 811-821, March.
  11. C. W. Granger & E. Maasoumi & J. Racine, 2004. "A Dependence Metric for Possibly Nonlinear Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 649-669, 09.
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