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Real and Nominal Foreign Exchange Volatility Effects on Exports – The Importance of Timing

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  • John Cotter

    (University College Dublin)

  • Don Bredin

    (University College Dublin)

Abstract

This paper compares real and nominal foreign exchange volatility effects on exports. Using a flexible lag version of the Goldstein-Khan two-country imperfect substitutes model for bilateral trade, we identify the overall effect into both a timing as well as a size impact. We find that the size impact of forecasted foreign exchange volatility does not vary according to the measure used in terms of magnitude and direction. However, there are very different timing effects, when we compare real and nominal foreign exchange rate volatility.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp200619.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Geary Institute, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200619.

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Length: 16pages
Date of creation: 07 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:200619

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Keywords: Exports; Volatility; Real & Nominal effects;

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  1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
  2. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
  3. Franc Klaassen, 2000. "Why is it so Difficult to Find an Effect of Exchange Rate Risk on Trade?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0133, Econometric Society.
  4. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2000. "Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 488, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2002.
  5. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-95, August.
  6. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
  7. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November.
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