Explaining Forward Exchange Bias...Intraday
AbstractIntraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the central bank's interest rate defense. In equilibrium, however, buyers of the vulnerable currency must be compensated on average with an intraday capital gain as long as no devaluation occurs. That is, currencies under attack should typically appreciate intraday. Using data on intraday exchange rate changes within the EMS, we find this prediction is borne out.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of California at Berkeley in its series Research Program in Finance Working Papers with number RPF-242.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1995
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Other versions of this item:
- Lyons, Richard K & Rose, Andrew K, 1994. "Explaining Forward Exchange Bias .... Intra-day," CEPR Discussion Papers 1059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard K. Lyons & Andrew K. Rose, 1995. "Explaining Forward Exchange Bias..Intraday," NBER Working Papers 4982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lyons, Richard K., 1995.
"Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market,"
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Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
- Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
- Alain P. Chaboud & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003.
"Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
752, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July.
- Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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