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Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios

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  • Jaume Roselló Nadal

    ()
    (Universitat de les Illes Balears)

  • María Santana Gallego

    ()
    (Universitat de les Illes Balears)

Abstract

The current pattern of international tourist flows evidences how climate is one of the main factors in the destination choice of tourists. Climate scientists are very certain that the Earth’s climate will change at an unprecedented rate over the 21st century, anticipating global warming. This paper investigates the role of climate and other determining variables in destination choice for international tourist flows. A model for international tourist arrivals is estimated by using bilateral tourism movements between 178 countries from 1995 to 2010, allowing the estimation of a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within the A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, the expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, showing and evaluating how climate change would imply a loss of attractiveness for raditional warmerdestinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada in its series DEA Working Papers with number 52.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ubi:deawps:52

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Related research

Keywords: International tourism flows; Climate Change; Gravity model;

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References

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  1. Michele Fratianni, 2007. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade," Working Papers 2007-17, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
  2. Yair Eilat & Liran Einav, 2004. "Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1315-1327.
  3. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
  4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
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  6. Brun, Jean-François & Carrère, Céline & de Melo, Jaime & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2002. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 3500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2007. "The Effect of EMU on Tourism," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 302-312, 05.
  8. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
  9. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
  10. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
  11. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Germany, The UK and Ireland: A Simulation Study," Papers WP174, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  12. Christoph Vietze, 2008. "Cultural Effects on Inbound Tourism into the USA: A Gravity Approach," Jena Economic Research Papers 2008-037, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  13. María Santana‐Gallego & Francisco J. Ledesma‐Rodríguez & Jorge V. Pérez‐Rodríguez & Isabel Cortés‐Jiménez, 2010. "Does a Common Currency Promote Countries’ Growth via Trade and Tourism?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1811-1835, December.
  14. Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2006. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 92-121, April.
  15. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
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