Inter-temporal and Inter-Industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for Canada
AbstractThe objective of this paper is to examine the inter-industry and labour market occupational effects of population ageing in Canada, using a computable general equilibrium overlapping-generations model. The model is calibrated along a balanced-growth path, taking into account labour-augmenting (Harrod-neutral) technical progress. It also accounts for heterogeneity at the household level, using 25 occupation-specific earnings profiles. In addition to the impact of slower labour force growth, the model captures the shift in sectoral composition of final demand. The latter is due to different consumption preferences of older individuals. Moreover, a wage curve is introduced to explore the impact of population ageing on the unemployment rate. The simulation results indicate that the growth in real GDP per capita could decline by nearly one percentage point between 2006 and 2050. Besides, the production of services, in percent of total GDP, is projected to increase in the long-run, although the analysis shows more modest changes in production shares than in previous studies. The results also suggest that the equilibrium unemployment rate is likely to decline by more than 2 percentage points in the long run. The impact also varies quite significantly at the occupational level.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by UBC Department of Economics in its series CLSRN Working Papers with number clsrn_admin-2009-44.
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 22 Jul 2009
Date of revision: 22 Jul 2009
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Population ageing; growth; general equilibrium model; overlapping generations; Canada;
Other versions of this item:
- Nabil Annabi & Maxime Fougère & Simon Harvey, 2009. "Inter-temporal and Inter-industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for Canada," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(4), pages 609-651, December.
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2009-08-02 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2009-08-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-08-02 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DGE-2009-08-02 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
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- Annabi, Nabil & Harvey, Simon & Lan, Yu, 2011. "Public expenditures on education, human capital and growth in Canada: An OLG model analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 852-865.
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