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Évaluer un dispositif sectoriel d'aide à l'emploi : l'exemple des hôtels, cafés et restaurants de 2004 à 2009

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  • Mathieu Bunel

    (UFR de sciences économiques et de gestion, Université de Caen Basse-Normandie, CREM-CNRS, UMR 6211)

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of government grants introduced in August 2004 in the French sector hotels and restaurants. This program is based on payroll tax reductions and covers the period 2004-2009. The amount of the payroll tax reductions varied according the subsector, the wage and firm tenure.To evaluate the effects on job creation and job destruction we used several quasi-exhaustive administrative sources containing the plants complete grant and employment history. By using a semi-aggregated balanced sample, to include entry and exit of firms, we compare the change in outcomes for the targeted firms to the changes in firms operating in the similar industries. These industries are retail trade (except retail sale of pharmaceutical, medical, electronic and computer goods, doorstep and mail sale, supermarkets) and personal services (except sporting, recreational and cultural activities). We consider a panel Tobit model with unobserved heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that the HCR subsidy program did lead to significant and small employment effect (7,500 jobs by year). However, the cost of the actual job creation was quite huge (€80,000 per job). We also find differences in the employment response to subsidies between subsectors. Therefore, a different targeting of the aid could have been more effective. In french: En août 2004 a été mis en place une aide à l'emploi spécifique aux entreprises du secteur Hôtel-Cafés-Restaurants (HCR). Ce dispositif relativement complexe couvrant la période 2004 à 2009 repose sur une exonération forfaitaire variable selon le secteur d'activité, le niveau des salaires et l'ancienneté des entreprises. Afin d'étudier l'impact spécifique de ce dispositif sur les taux de création et de destruction d'emplois, on mobilise les données administratives issues des fichiers Unedic et Acoss permettant de retracer l'ensemble des exonérations effectivement perçues par les entreprises de ces secteurs ainsi que les données issues des Dads pour mesurer l'évolution infra-annuelle de l'emploi. On compare à l'aide d'un panel sur données semi-agrégées, la situation des entreprises des sous-secteurs HCR éligibles aux aides à celle des entreprises témoins ayant une structure des salaires et d'activité comparable. Il s'agit d'entreprises issues des services à la personne hors aide à domicile, activités sportives et culturelles et du commerce de détail alimentaire ou non-alimentaire hors grandes surfaces, vente à domicile, activité médicale, électronique et informatique. Pour tenir compte de la censure des données et de l'influence des variables inobservables un modèle Tobit avec effet aléatoire. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la hausse du Taux d'exonération apparent générée par les aides HCR a eu un impact significatif mais très limité en termes de création et de sauvegarde de l'emploi. L'effet estimé est de l'ordre de 7 500 emplois par an soit un coût par emploi créé très élevé, de plus de 80 000 €. Les résultats obtenus indiquent également que le ciblage de cette aide aurait pu être plus efficace en concentrant les aides sur les sous-secteurs les plus sensibles au coût du travail.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS in its series Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) with number 201223.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:tut:cremwp:201223

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Keywords: Hôtels-cafés-restaurants; exonérations de cotisations sociales; aide sectorielle à l'emploi; modèle Tobit avec effet aléatoire sur données de panel;

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  1. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
  2. Bo Honore & Ekaterini Kyriazidou & J. L. Powell, 2000. "Estimation of tobit-type models with individual specific effects," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 341-366.
  3. C. A. Field & A. H. Welsh, 2007. "Bootstrapping clustered data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(3), pages 369-390.
  4. G. S. Maddala, 1987. "Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 307-338.
  5. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
  6. Richard Duhautois, 2002. "Les réallocations d'emplois en France sont-elles en phase avec le cycle ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 351(1), pages 87-103.
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