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Permanent and Transitory Dynamics in House Prices and Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence

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Author Info
Fabio C. Bagliano () (Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino)
Claudio Morana () (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Eastern Piedmont)

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Abstract

In this paper a small-scale macroeconomic system is estimated in the framework of a common trends model, in order to explore the dynamic interactions between real house prices, consumption expenditure and output in the US and major European economies. The results point to important differences across countries, with long-run house price effects on consumption only for France, Germany and the US. However, some interactions between house prices and consumption are detected in all countries at shorter horizons. Evidence of international comovements in the common trend component of house price dynamics is also found.

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File URL: http://web.econ.unito.it/prato/papers/n2.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Torino, Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato" in its series Working Papers with number 2.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tur:wpaper:2

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Related research
Keywords: house prices; consumption; common trends;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrea Finicelli, 2007. "House price developments and fundamentals in the United States," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 7, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," NBER Working Papers 13553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  4. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Morana, Claudio, 2007. "Multivariate modelling of long memory processes with common components," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 919-934, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  7. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17. [Downloadable!]
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1630, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  10. Shiller, Robert J., 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Working Papers 28, Yale University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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