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The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence

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Author Info
Andreas Röthig () (Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology))

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Abstract

This study compares the relation between backwardation and optimal hedging demand as suggested by economic theory to empirical findings concerning the impact of weak and strong backwardation on hedgers' trading volume in six long and short currency futures contracts. First, the optimal hedging demand of a representative importer, with and without hedging costs, is derived. Then hedgers' position data from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report are regressed on weak and strong backwardation. The empirical results offer little support for the hypotheses suggested by economic theory.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology) in its series Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics with number 190.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tud:ddpiec:190

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Related research
Keywords: Backwardation; hedging; currency futures;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ishii, Yasunori, 1977. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty: Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 768-69, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jin, Hyun J. & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Offshore hedging strategy of Japan-based wheat traders under multiple sources of risk and hedging costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 220-236, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-95, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kimball, Miles S, 1993. "Standard Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 589-611, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lapan, Harvey E. & Moschini, Giancarlo, 2002. "Futures Hedging Under Price, Basis and Production Risk," Staff General Research Papers 10041, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 1-30.
  8. Haigh, Michael S & Holt, Matthew T, 2000. " Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-96, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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