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Crude Oil Price Determinants

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Author Info
Jochen Moebert () (Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology))

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Abstract

Based on monthly observations, I specify an econometric model capturing the driving forces behind the crude oil price series in recent years. A large set of covariates, such as supply and demand variables as well as futures market variables, is used to test the impact on the crude oil price. Current price movements are a result of scarce refining capacity and speculators betting on higher prices. The results also question OPEC’s market power.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology) in its series Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics with number 186.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tud:ddpiec:186

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Related research
Keywords: Crude oil market; Econometric modelling;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply

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