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Meta Analysis of Empirical Deterrence Studies: an explorative contest

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Author Info
Thomas Rupp () (Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology))
Abstract

A sample of 200 studies empirically analyzing deterrence in some way is evaluated. Various methods of data mining (stepwise regressions, Extreme Bounds Analysis, Bayesian Model Averaging, manual and naive selections) are used to explore different influence of various variables on the results of each study. The preliminary results of these methods are tested against each other in a competition of methodology to evaluate their performance in forecasting and fitting the data and to conclude which methods should be favored in an upcoming extensive meta-analysis. It seems to be that restrictive methods (which select fewer variables) are to be preferred when predicting data ex ante and less parsimonious (which select more variables) methods when data has to be fitted (ex post). In the former case forward stepwise regression or Bayesian Model Selection perform very well, whereas backward stepwise regression and Extreme Bounds Analysis are to be preferred in the latter case.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology) in its series Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics with number 174.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tud:ddpiec:174

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Related research
Keywords: meta analysis; data mining; deterrence; criminometrics;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Microeconomic Data
K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-14.

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