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German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Level, International Trade, and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs

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Author Info
Horst Entorf () (Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology))
Gösta Jamin () (McKinsey & Company, München)

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Abstract

This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways (e.g. by using multi-factor modelling instead of augmented CAPM, application of moving window panel regressions, orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-à-vis currency risk). The main innovation lies in testing implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and exposure. Based on time series data of German DAX companies, DM/ dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, time-variant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/GDP and negatively affected by imports/GDP as well as by significant deviations of the dollar price from its long-run median. The first two findings are in line with the presumption that exporting corporations benefit from dollar price increases, whereas importing corporations benefit from dollar price decreases. The last finding can be explained by higher exchange rate adjustment costs in case of substantial deviations from the long-run median level. Furthermore, there is indication of asymmetric adjustment costs as effects from appreciations of domestic currency appear to be smaller than from depreciations.

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Paper provided by Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology) in its series Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics with number 126.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:tud:ddpiec:126

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Horst Entorf & Gösta Jamin, 2003. "The dollar and the German stock market: determination of exposure to and pricing of exchange rate risk using APT-modelling," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 127, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Entorf, Horst & Moeber, Jochen & Sonderhof, Katja, 2007. "The foreign exchange rate rate exposure of nations," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-005, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mevlud Islami, 2008. "Interdependence Between Foreign Exchange Markets and Stock Markets in Selected European Countries," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp08007, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gamini Premaratne & Prabhath Jayasinghe, 2005. "Exchange rate exposure of stock returns at firm level," International Finance 0503004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Horst Entorf & Jochen Moebert & Katja Sonderhof, 2006. "The Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure of Nations," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 169, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology). [Downloadable!]
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