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Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government: An update

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Author Info

  • Nu Nu Win

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Simon Duggan

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Phil Garton

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Spiro Premetis

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Bonnie Li

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

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    Abstract

    This Working Paper presents an overview of structural budget balance models and the adjustments most relevant for Australia. Three models (the OECD model, the IMF model and Treasury’s previously published model in the Australian Government’s 2009-10 Budget and McDonald et al (2010)) are discussed. Updated estimates of the Australian Government’s structural budget balance are presented alongside analysis showing the sensitivity of the results to plausible changes in key parameters. The updated structural budget balance estimates are based on the model used by McDonald et al (2010) and updated for the Australian Government’s 2013-14 Budget.

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    File URL: http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/Estimating%20the%20Structural%20Budget%20Balance/Key%20Documents/PDF/Working_paper_2013_1.ashx
    File Function: First version, 2013
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Treasury, Australian Government in its series Treasury Working Papers with number 2013-01.

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    Length: 14 pages
    Date of creation: May 2013
    Date of revision: May 2013
    Handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2013_1

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    Related research

    Keywords: fiscal policy; cyclical adjustment; structural fiscal balance; commodity prices;

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    1. Tony McDonald & Yong Hong Yan & Blake Ford & David Stephan, 2010. "Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government," Economic Roundup, Treasury, Australian Government, issue 3, pages 51-79, October.
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