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Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government: An update

Author

Listed:
  • Nu Nu Win

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Simon Duggan

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Phil Garton

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Spiro Premetis

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Bonnie Li

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

This Working Paper presents an overview of structural budget balance models and the adjustments most relevant for Australia. Three models (the OECD model, the IMF model and Treasury’s previously published model in the Australian Government’s 2009-10 Budget and McDonald et al (2010)) are discussed. Updated estimates of the Australian Government’s structural budget balance are presented alongside analysis showing the sensitivity of the results to plausible changes in key parameters. The updated structural budget balance estimates are based on the model used by McDonald et al (2010) and updated for the Australian Government’s 2013-14 Budget.

Suggested Citation

  • Nu Nu Win & Simon Duggan & Phil Garton & Spiro Premetis & Bonnie Li, 2013. "Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government: An update," Treasury Working Papers 2013-01, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised May 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2013_1
    as

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    File URL: http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/Estimating%20the%20Structural%20Budget%20Balance/Key%20Documents/PDF/Working_paper_2013_1.ashx
    File Function: First version, 2013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tony McDonald & Yong Hong Yan & Blake Ford & David Stephan, 2010. "Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 3, pages 51-79, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurentiu Dumitru ANDREI & Petre BREZEANU, 2019. "Optimizing the Financial Structure of the State Treasury in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 180-195, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; cyclical adjustment; structural fiscal balance; commodity prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H69 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Other

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