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Born Under a Lucky Star?

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  • Nobuyuki Hanaki
  • Alan Kirman
  • Matteo Marsili

Abstract

This paper suggests that people can learn to behave in a way which makes them unlucky or lucky. Learning from experience will lead them to make choices which may lead to "luckier" outcomes than others. By so doing they may reinforce the choices of those who find themselves with unlucky outcomes. In this situation, people have reasonably learned to behave as they do and their behaviour is consistent with their experience. The lucky ones were not "born under a lucky star" they learned to be lucky.

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File URL: http://www.econ.tsukuba.ac.jp/RePEc/2009-003.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba in its series Tsukuba Economics Working Papers with number 2009-003.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2009-003

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Postal: 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8571
Web page: http://www.econ.tsukuba.ac.jp/
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  1. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2008. "UK mutual fund performance: Skill or luck?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 613-634, September.
  2. Leung, H. M. & Tan, Swee Liang & Yang, Zhen Lin, 2004. "What has luck got to do with economic development? An interpretation of resurgent Asia's growth experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 373-385, April.
  3. Alberto Alesina & George-Marios Angeletos, 2004. "Fairness and Redistribution," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 122247000000000306, www.najecon.org.
  4. Olivier Compte & Andrew Postlewaite, 2004. "Confidence-Enhanced Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1536-1557, December.
  5. Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2004. "Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 824-832, August.
  6. Neugebauer, Tibor & Pezanis-Christou, Paul, 2007. "Bidding behavior at sequential first-price auctions with(out) supply uncertainty: A laboratory analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 55-72, May.
  7. Thomas Piketty, 1994. "Social Mobility and Redistributive Politics," Working papers 94-15, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Erev, Ido & Roth, Alvin E, 1998. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 848-81, September.
  9. Eric, Van den Steen, 2002. "Skill or Luck? Biases of Rational Agents," Working papers 4255-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  10. McAfee R. Preston & Vincent Daniel, 1993. "The Declining Price Anomaly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 191-212, June.
  11. Hartzmark, Michael L, 1991. "Luck versus Forecast Ability: Determinants of Trader Performance in Futures Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 49-74, January.
  12. Paul Gompers & Anna Kovner & Josh Lerner & David Scharfstein, 2006. "Skill vs. Luck in Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital: Evidence from Serial Entrepreneurs," NBER Working Papers 12592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Gerard J. van den Berg & Jan C. van Ours & Menno P. Pradhan, 2001. "The Declining Price Anomaly in Dutch Dutch Rose Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1055-1062, September.
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