The paper studies the process of inference formation in strategic decision making that occurs in ontologically uncertain settings, in which knowledge based on previous experience is unavailable or of limited help. We build on a cognitive model of causal inference which has roots into the connectionist tradition. The model describes strategic choice formation as a process of selection between competing interpretations of the set of environmental stimuli, in which a plan of action emerges over the others because of its higher level of logical coherence in explaining the available evidence. We show how the model reproduces the major stylized facts that result from a strategic choice case study (the decision of entering into the market with a new mobile technology by a telecommunication corporation). In particular, we show how bad inferences might depend from limited available information and how the emergence of new information can improve the performance in inference formation. Also, we explore to what extent additional information on relevant events and hypotheses, as well as in causal relationship among them, can improve "ex-ante" strategic evaluations of alternatives, thus increasing the overall performance of the whole strategic process. As a final point, we discuss how the model can be applied to action–planning process or decision support systems in order to improve the actual strategic process of real decision makers.
Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page
whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be
available.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy in its series ROCK Working Papers with number
040.
Did you know? You can create a compilation of all publications of a group of people, say alumni of a program, your students or memers of an association.