Monetary policy through the “credit-cost channel”. Italy and Germany
AbstractIn this paper we wish to extend the empirical content of the "credit-cost channel" of monetary policy that we proposed in Passamani and Tamborini (2005). In the first place, we replicate the econometric estimation of the model for Italy, to which we add Germany. We find confirmation that, in both countries, firms' reliance on bank loans (“credit channel”) makes aggregate supply sensitive to bank interest rates (“cost channel”), which are in turn driven by the inter-bank rate controlled by the central bank plus a credit risk premium charged by banks on firms. The second extension consists of a formal econometric analysis of the idea that the interest rate is an instrument of control for the central bank. The empirical results of the CCC model that, according to Johansen and Juselius (2003), innovations in the inter-bank rate qualify this variables as a "control variable" in the system. Hence we replicate the Johansen and Juselius technique of simulation of rule-based stabilization policy. This is done for both Italy and Germany, on the basis of the respective estimated CCC models, taking the inter-bak rate as the instrument and the inflation of 2% as the target. As a result, we find confirmation that inflation-targeting by way of inter-bank rate control, grafted onto the estimated CCC model, would stabilize inflation through structural shifts of the "AS curve", that is, the path of realizations in the output-inflation space.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 0609.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Macroeconomics and monetary economics; Monetary transmission mechanisms; Structural cointegration models; Italian economy; German economy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-02-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2007-02-24 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2007-02-24 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2007-02-24 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2007-02-24 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-02-24 (Monetary Economics)
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