IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/trn/utwpas/1214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamical Coupling, Nonlinear Accelerator and the Persistence of Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Zambelli

Abstract

Many of the research questions and research programs that were posed and suggested by Richard Goodwin are still highly relevant for various methodological, empirical and theoretical reasons. In this paper, we address the issue of whether highly articulated and complex economic interactions can be represented by a simplified low dimensional model. We follow the valuable insight offered by Goodwin (1947) concerning the importance of dynamical coupling and the potential role of analog and/or digital computers in studying them fruitfully. Here, we extend the nonlinear, flexible accelerator - dynamic multiplier model of business cycle by Goodwin (1951), to the case in which these economies are coupled through trade. The dynamics implied by the coupling are studied in analogy with the well known Fermi-Pasta-Ulam problem (Fermi et al., 1955). We show that for nonlinear economies, even when they are exactly the same, i.e. having the same structural behavioral equations, the very rich dynamics depend crucially on the initial conditions. This result is somewhat unexpected.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Zambelli, 2012. "Dynamical Coupling, Nonlinear Accelerator and the Persistence of Business Cycles," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1214, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:trn:utwpas:1214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.assru.economia.unitn.it/files/DP_3_2012_II.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano Zambelli, 2011. "Coupled Dynamics in a Phillips Machine Model of the Macroeconomy," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 171-188.
    2. K. Vela Velupillai, 2005. "The impossibility of an effective theory of policy in a complex economy," Department of Economics Working Papers 0514, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    3. K. Vela Velupillai, 2008. "The Mathematization of Macroeconomics: A Recursive Revolution," Department of Economics Working Papers 0807, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    4. J. M. Clark, 1931. "Capital Production and Consumer-Taking: A Reply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 814-814.
    5. Stefano Zambelli, 2011. "Flexible Accelerator Economic Systems As Coupled Oscillators," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 608-633, July.
    6. Kumaraswamy Velupillai, 2003. "Economics and the complexity vision: chimerical partners or elysian adventurers," Department of Economics Working Papers 0307, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    7. Kumaraswamy Velupillai, "undated". "The Computable Approach to Economics," Working Papers _005, University of California at Los Angeles, Center for Computable Economics.
    8. J. M. Clark, 1932. "Capital Production and Consumer-Taking: A Further Word," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 691-691.
    9. Allan McRobie, 2011. "Business Cycles in the Phillips Machine," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1102, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    10. K. Vela Velupillai & Stefano Zambelli, 2011. "Computing in Economics," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), 2011. "The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13684.
    12. V. Ragupathy & K. Vela Velupillai, 2012. "Existence Proofs in Nonlinear Endogenous Theories of the Business Cycle on the Plane -- The Origins," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1210, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    13. Stefano Zambelli, 2007. "A Rocking Horse That Never Rocked: Frisch's “Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems”," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 145-166, Spring.
    14. Ragnar Frisch, 1932. "Capital Production and Consumer-Taking: A Final Word," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 694-694.
    15. J. Maurice Clark, 1917. "Business Acceleration and the Law of Demand: A Technical Factor in Economic Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25, pages 217-217.
    16. Ragnar Frisch, 1931. "The Interrelation Between Capital Production and Consumer-Taking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 646-646.
    17. Ragnar Frisch, 1932. "Capital Production and Consumer-Taking: A Rejoinder," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 253-253.
    18. Velupillai, K. Vela, 1998. "The vintage economist," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-31, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alain Raybaut, 2018. "Coupling and synchronization dynamics in endogenous business cycles models," Post-Print halshs-01941339, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano Zambelli & Björn Thalberg, 1992. "The Wooden Horse That Wouldn’t Rock: Reconsidering Frisch," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Kumaraswamy Velupillai (ed.), Nonlinearities, Disequilibria and Simulation, chapter 4, pages 27-56, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Selda (Ying Fang) Kao & K. Vela Velupillai, 2011. "Behavioural Economics: Classical and Modern," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1126, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    3. Carret, Vincent, 2021. "Fluctuations and growth in Ragnar Frisch’s rocking horse model," OSF Preprints 69nsg, Center for Open Science.
    4. Koppl, Roger, 2010. "Some epistemological implications of economic complexity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 859-872, December.
    5. K. Vela Velupillai & Ragupathy Venkatachalam & Stefano Zambelli, 2014. "Albert Aftalion and Business Cycle Theory: A Note," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 487-490.
    6. K. Vela Velupillai, 2012. "The Relevance of Computation Irreducibility as Computation Universality in Economics," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1212, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    7. Fioretti, Guido, 2006. "Recognising investment opportunities at the onset of recoveries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 69-84, June.
    8. K. Vela Velupillai & Stefano Zambelli, 2010. "The Epistemology of Simulation, Computation and Dynamics in Economics Ennobling Synergies, Enfeebling 'Perfection'," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1002, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    9. K.Vela Velupillai, 2012. "The Epistemology of Simulation, Computation and Dynamics in Economics," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1218, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    10. Gräbner, Claudius, 2014. "Agent-Based Computational Models - A Formal Heuristic for Institutionalist Pattern Modelling?," MPRA Paper 56415, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. K. Vela Velupillai & Stefano Zambelli, 2011. "Computing in Economics," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Geoffrey M. Hodgson, 2011. "A Philosophical Perspective on Contemporary Evolutionary Economics," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
    14. Robert Kelm, 2017. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and Imperfect Knowledge: The Case of the Polish Zloty," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
    15. Su, Huei-Chun & Colander, David, 2021. "The Economist As Scientist, Engineer, Or Plumber?," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 297-312, June.
    16. Igor Belykh & Mateusz Bocian & Alan R. Champneys & Kevin Daley & Russell Jeter & John H. G. Macdonald & Allan McRobie, 2021. "Emergence of the London Millennium Bridge instability without synchronisation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Paul L. Borrill & Leigh Tesfatsion, 2011. "Agent-based Modeling: The Right Mathematics for the Social Sciences?," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Belegri-Roboli, Athena & Economakis, George & Milios, John G., 2005. "The Determinants of Investment Activity in Greece (1960-’99)," MPRA Paper 74548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Eric Kemp‐Benedict, 2020. "Convergence of actual, warranted, and natural growth rates in a Kaleckian–Harrodian‐classical model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 851-881, November.
    20. Mandel, Antoine & Taghawi-Nejad, Davoud & Veetil, Vipin P., 2019. "The price effects of monetary shocks in a network economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 300-316.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trn:utwpas:1214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: assru.tm@gmail.com (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/detreit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.