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Trade Costs, Conflicts, and Defense Spending

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  • Seitz, Michael
  • Tarasov, Alexander
  • Zakharenko, Roman

Abstract

This paper develops a quantitative model of trade, military conflicts, and defense spending. Trade liberalization between two countries reduces probability of an armed conflict between them, causing both to cut defense spending. This in turn causes a domino effect on defense spending by other countries. As a result, both countries and the rest of the world are better off. We estimate the model using data on trade, conflicts, and military spending. We find that, after reduction of costs of trade between a pair of hostile countries, the welfare effect of worldwide defense spending cuts is comparable in magnitude to the direct welfare gains from trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich in its series Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems with number 404.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:trf:wpaper:404

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Keywords: general equilibrium; gains from trade; defense spending;

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  1. Vincent Vicard, 2006. "Trade, Conflicts, and Political Integration: the Regional Interplays," CESifo Working Paper Series 1839, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. David Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 508, Econometric Society.
  3. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "Collateral damage: trade disruption and the economic impact of war," Working Paper Series 2005-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Polachek, Solomon & Seiglie, Carlos, 2006. "Trade, Peace and Democracy: An Analysis of Dyadic Dispute," IZA Discussion Papers 2170, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2005. "Make trade not war ?," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 0515, CEPREMAP.
  7. Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Trade, conflict, and political integration: Explaining the heterogeneity of regional trade agreements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 54-71.
  8. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Daron Acemoglu & Pierre Yared, 2010. "Political Limits to Globalization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 83-88, May.
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