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A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Fiscal System in Egypt

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  • Gerhard Glomm

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Indiana University - Bloomington)

  • Juergen Jung

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Towson University)

Abstract

We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the fiscal situation of Egypt. We model Egypt as a small open economy that takes real interest rates and world prices of fuel as given. Since a large component of the government budget consists of pensions payments, we use an overlapping generations structure. The model contains descriptions of the public and private sector, as well as descriptions of the production sectors for a public good such as infrastructure, energy, and a final aggregate consumption good. The model pays special attention to the energy sector. We then calibrate the model to data from Egypt. The following policy reforms are considered: (i) reductions in pensions to public sector workers, (ii) reductions in pensions to private sector workers, (iii) reductions in the public sector pay premiums, (iv) decreases of the energy subsidies, and (v) a decrease of the public sector workforce. In each case we reduce the "expenditure" by 15 percent. For each of the reforms we adjust consumption taxes, labor taxes, "capital taxes", or public investments in infrastructure to satisfy the government budget constraint. We calculate the new steady states, the transition paths to the new steady states, and the size of the welfare gains or losses for all reforms. We find that due to the modest nature of the reforms, the effect of the policy reforms on GDP and consumption are modest. Often these gains are in the neighborhood of 1 percent. We find that welfare gains or losses can be sizable and that the largest gains from the reforms are attained when the freed up resources are used for infrastructure investments or for lowering the tax on company profits.

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File URL: http://www.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-17.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Towson University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2010-17.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision: Oct 2010
Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-17

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Postal: Towson, Maryland 21252-0001
Phone: 410-704-2959
Fax: 410-704-3424
Web page: http://www.towson.edu/cbe/economics/
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Keywords: Fiscal policy reform; public sector reform; energy subsidies; growth.;

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References

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  1. Charles R. Hulten, 1996. "Infrastructure Capital and Economic Growth: How Well You Use It May Be More Important Than How Much You Have," NBER Working Papers 5847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1997. "Productive government expenditures and long-run growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 183-204, January.
  3. James A. Schmitz, Jr., 1997. "Government production of investment goods and aggregate labor productivity," Staff Report 240, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Huggett, Mark, 1996. "Wealth distribution in life-cycle economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 469-494, December.
  5. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Changmin Lee & Chung Tran, 2009. "Public Sector Pension Policies and Capital Accumulation in Emerging Economies," Discussion Papers 2009-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  6. Glomm, Gerhard & Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung, 2009. "Macroeconomic implications of early retirement in the public sector: The case of Brazil," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 777-797, April.
  7. Colucci, Domenico, 2003. "Steady states in the OLG model with seignorage and long-lived agents," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 371-381, December.
  8. Gerhard Glomm & B. Ravikumar, 1998. "Flat-Rate Taxes, Government Spending on Education, and Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 306-325, January.
  9. Luisa Fuster & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2005. "Personal Security Accounts and Mandatory Annuitization in a Dynastic Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 1405, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Blankenau, William F. & Simpson, Nicole B., 2004. "Public education expenditures and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 583-605, April.
  11. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2001. "Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma," NBER Working Papers 8258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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