Political Business Cycles and Russian Elections, or the Manipulations of Chudar
AbstractPolitical business cycle theories tend to focus on one policy instrument or macroeconomic lever at a time. Efforts to find empirical evidence of opportunistic business cycles have turned up rather meager results. We suggest that these facts may be related. If ways of manipulating the economy to win votes are thought of as substitutes, with changing relative costs, one would expect rational policy makers to switch between them in different periods as costs change. We illustrate this argument with a discussion of Russia. In Russia, four nationwide votes have been held since 1993. We deduce the set of policies that a rational, behind-the-scenes strategist--the "Chudar" of the title--would recommend to an incumbent who believes the voters to vote retrospectively. We show that the expectations are born out closely in the actual macroeconomic data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-39.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033
Web page: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index.html
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-1999-07-28 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-POL-1999-07-28 (Positive Political Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Koen Schoors & Konstantin Sonin, 2005.
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
wp737, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Schoors, Koen & Sonin, Konstantin, 2004. "Passive Creditors," CEPR Discussion Papers 4821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Koen Schoors & Konstantin Sonin, 2005. "Passive Creditors," Working Papers w0015, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- K. Schoors & K. Sonin, 2003. "Passive Creditors," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/177, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Jula, Dorin, 2008. "Economic Impact of Political Cycles – The Relevance of European experinces for Romania," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081101, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
- Asad Alam & Mamta Murthi & Ruslan Yemtsov & Edmundo Murrugarra & Nora Dudwick & Ellen Hamilton & Erwin Tiongson, 2005. "Growth, Poverty and Inequality : Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7287, October.
- World Bank, 2003. "The Russian Labor Market : Moving from Crisis to Recovery," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15007, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CIRJE administrative office).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.