Good and Bad Investment: An Inquiry into the Causes of Credit Cycles

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Good and Bad Investment: An Inquiry into the Causes of Credit Cycles

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Kiminori Matsuyama (Department of Economics, Northwestern University and CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

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Kiminori Matsuyama

Abstract

This paper develops models of endogenous credit cycles. The basic model has two types of profitable investment projects: the Good and the Bad. Unlike the Good, the Bad contributes little to improve the net worth of other borrowers. Furthermore, it is relatively difficult to finance externally due to the agency problem. In a recession, a low net worth prevents the agents from financing the Bad, and much of the saving goes to finance the Good. This leads an improvement in net worth. In a boom, a high net worth makes it possible for the agents to finance the Bad. At the peak of the boom, this shift in the composition of credit and of investment from the Good to the Bad causes a deterioration of net worth, and the economy plunges into a recession. The whole process repeats itself. Endogenous fluctuations occur because the Good breeds the Bad, and the Bad destroys the Good. When extended to incorporate the Bernanke-Gertler (1989) type credit multiplier mechanism, the model generates asymmetric fluctuations, along which the economy experiences a long and slow process of recovery from a recession, followed by a rapid expansion, and possibly after a period of high volatility, plunges into a recession.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-172.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf172

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Paper
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 2001. "Good and Bad Investment: An Inquiry into the Causes of Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1335, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science, revised Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]

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Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Matsuyama, Kiminori, 2000. "Endogenous Inequality," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(4), pages 743-59, October.
Other versions:
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1998. "Endogenous Inequality," Discussion Papers 1238, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
Piketty, Thomas & Banerjee, Abhijit & Aghion, Philippe, 1997. "Dualism and macroeconomic volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9720, CEPREMAP.
Other versions:
- Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism And Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Michele Boldrin & Michael Woodford, 1988. "Equilibruim Models Displaying Endogenous Fluctuations and Chaos: A Survey," UCLA Economics Working Papers 530, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Baumol, William J & Benhabib, Jess, 1989. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Baumol, William J. & Benhabib, Jess, 1987. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Working Papers 87-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
Other versions:
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Ryo Kato, 2003. "Matlab code for Kiyotaki-Moore credit cycles," QM&RBC Codes 113, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 335-348, March.
Other versions:
- Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1996. "Growing Through Cycles," Economics Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1996. "Growing Through Cycles," Discussion Papers 1203, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
- Matsuyama, K., 1996. "Growing through cycles," DELTA Working Papers 96-18, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
Kiminori Matsuyama, 2000. "Financial Market Globalization and Endogenous Inequality of Nations," Discussion Papers 1300, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 2001. "Financial Market Globalization and Endogenous Inequality of Nations," Discussion Papers 1334, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1991. "Endogenous Fluctuations," DELTA Working Papers 91-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Hans Gersbach & Jan Wenzelburger, 2004. "Do Risk Premia Protect from Banking Crises," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000356, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gersbach, Hans & Wenzelburger, Jan, 2005. "Do Risk Premia Protect from Banking Crises?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kiminori Matsuyama, 2004. "Credit Market Imperfections and Patterns of International Trade and Capital Flows," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-293, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 2004. "Credit Market Imperfections and Patterns of International Trade and Capital Flows," Discussion Papers 1389, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 2005. "Credit Market Imperfections and Patterns of International Trade and Capital Flows," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 714-723, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kiminori Matsuyama, 2002. "Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-186, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 2004. "Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 853-884, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kiminori Matsuyama, 2002. "On the Rise and Fall of Class Societies," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-173, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 2001. "On the Rise and Fall of Class Societies," Discussion Papers 1326, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]

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