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Good and Bad Investment: An Inquiry into the Causes of Credit Cycles

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  • Kiminori Matsuyama

    (Department of Economics, Northwestern University and CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper develops models of endogenous credit cycles. The basic model has two types of profitable investment projects: the Good and the Bad. Unlike the Good, the Bad contributes little to improve the net worth of other borrowers. Furthermore, it is relatively difficult to finance externally due to the agency problem. In a recession, a low net worth prevents the agents from financing the Bad, and much of the saving goes to finance the Good. This leads an improvement in net worth. In a boom, a high net worth makes it possible for the agents to finance the Bad. At the peak of the boom, this shift in the composition of credit and of investment from the Good to the Bad causes a deterioration of net worth, and the economy plunges into a recession. The whole process repeats itself. Endogenous fluctuations occur because the Good breeds the Bad, and the Bad destroys the Good. When extended to incorporate the Bernanke-Gertler (1989) type credit multiplier mechanism, the model generates asymmetric fluctuations, along which the economy experiences a long and slow process of recovery from a recession, followed by a rapid expansion, and possibly after a period of high volatility, plunges into a recession.

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File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2002/2002cf172.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-172.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf172

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  1. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 335-348, March.
  2. Baumol, William J & Benhabib, Jess, 1989. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, Winter.
  3. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
  4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  5. Piketty, Thomas & Banerjee, Abhijit & Aghion, Philippe, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," Scholarly Articles 4554124, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2005. "Credit Market Imperfections and Patterns of International Trade and Capital Flows," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 714-723, 04/05.
  2. Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2005. "Credit constraints and the current account: A test for the Japanese economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1261-1277, December.

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