This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A Generalized SSAR Model and Predictive Distribution with an Application to VaR

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Naoto Kunitomo (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
Seisho Sato (Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
Abstract

The asymmetrical movements between the downward and upward phases of the sample paths of time series have been sometimes observed. By generalizing the SSAR (simultaneous switching autoregressive) models, we introduce a class of nonlinear time series models having the asymmetrical sample paths in the upward and downward phases. We show that the class of generalized SSAR models is useful for estimating the asymmetrical predictive distribution given the present and past information. Applications to the prediction based on the predictive median and the estimation of the VaR (value at risk) in financial risk management are discussed.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/cirje/research/dp/2001/2001cf122.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-122.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2001cf122

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/cirje/index.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kunitomo, Naoto & Sato, Seisho, 1996. "Asymmetry in economic time series and the simultaneous switching autoregressive model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Naoto Kunitomo, 1999. "On Ergodicity of Some TAR(2) Processes," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-55, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Harvey, Andrew C & Shephard, Neil, 1996. "Estimation of an Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model for Asset Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 429-34, October.
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You may want to explore EconPapers, which displays the same data as IDEAS in a different way.

This page was last updated on 2010-1-4.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.