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Information Mirages and Financial Contagion in Asset Market Experiment

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  • Noussair, C.N.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Xu, Yilong

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to consider whether asymmetric information about correlations between assets can induce financial contagion. Contagion, unjustified by fundamentals, would arise if participants react in one market to uninformative trades in the other market that actually convey no relevant information. The authors also consider whether the market accurately disseminates insider information about fundamental value correlations when such information is indeed present. Design/methodology/approach - – The authors employ experimental asset markets to answer the research questions. The experimental markets allow participants to simultaneously trade two assets for multiple rounds. In each round, a shock occurs, which either have an idiosyncratic effect on the shocked asset, or a systematic effect on both assets. Half of the time, there exist insiders who know the true nature of the shock and how it affects the value of the other asset. The other half of the time, no agent knows whether there is a correlation between the assets. In such cases, there is the potential for the appearance of information mirages. Uninformed traders, in either condition, do not know whether or not there exist insiders, but can try to infer this from the market activity they observe. Findings - – The results of the experiment show that when inside information about the nature of the correlation between assets does exist, it is readily disseminated in the form of market prices. However, when there is no private information (PI), mirages are common, demonstrating that financial contagion can arise in the absence of any fundamental relationship between assets. An analysis of individual behavior suggests that some unprofitable decisions appear to be related to an aversion to complex distributions of lottery payoffs. Originality/value - – The study focusses on one of the triggers of unjustified financial contagion, namely, asymmetric information. The authors have studied financi
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Noussair, C.N. & Xu, Yilong, 2014. "Information Mirages and Financial Contagion in Asset Market Experiment," Other publications TiSEM 8feff7d4-f49d-41a0-9bb0-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:8feff7d4-f49d-41a0-9bb0-58e6567dd12a
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Corgnet, Brice & Hernán-González, Roberto & Kujal, Praveen, 2020. "On booms that never bust: Ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Rocco Caferra & Gabriele Tedeschi & Andrea Morone, 2023. "Agents interaction and price dynamics: evidence from the laboratory," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(2), pages 251-274, April.
    3. Nuzzo, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2017. "Asset markets in the lab: A literature review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 42-50.
    4. Rocco Caferra & Simone Nuzzo & Andrea Morone, 2023. "“Less is more” or “more is better”? The effect of asymmetric information distribution on market efficiency and wealth inequality," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(2), pages 233-250, April.
    5. Morone, Andrea & Caferra, Rocco, 2020. "Inequalities in financial markets: Evidences from a laboratory experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Morone, Andrea & Nuzzo, Simone, 2015. "Market Efficiency, Trading Institutions and Information Mirages: evidence from an experimental asset market," MPRA Paper 67448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Robert Merl, 2021. "Literature Review of Experimental Asset Markets with Insiders," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2021-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    8. Caferra, Rocco & Morone, Andrea & Nuzzo, Simone, 2019. "The Impact of a Pre-Opening Session on Subsequent Trading: an Experimental Analysis," MPRA Paper 92853, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lucy F. Ackert & Brian D. Kluger & Li Qi & Lijia Wei, 2022. "An experimental examination of the flow of irrelevant information across markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(3), pages 1119-1148, January.
    10. Bao, Te & Hennequin, Myrna & Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico, 2020. "Coordination on bubbles in large-group asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Andrea Morone & Pasquale Marcello Falcone & Simone Nuzzo & Piergiuseppe Morone, 2020. "Does a ‘financial transaction tax’ drive out information mirages? An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(4), pages 793-820, October.
    12. Merl, Robert, 2022. "Literature review of experimental asset markets with insiders," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    13. Andrea Morone & Simone Nuzzo, 2019. "Market efficiency, trading institutions and information mirages: evidence from a laboratory asset market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(2), pages 317-344, June.
    14. Noussair, Charles N. & Popescu, Andreea Victoria, 2021. "Comovement and return predictability in asset markets: An experiment with two Lucas trees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 671-687.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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