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Structural Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates: The Impact of Sentence Reform in Virginia

Author

Listed:
  • Suncica Vujic

    (University of Bath, Bath, UK)

  • Jacques Commandeur

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (VU University Amsterdam)

Abstract

We adopt a structural time series analysis to investigate the impact of parole abolition and sentence reform in Virginia on reported crime rates. The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offences committed on or after January 1, 1995. To examine the impact of Virginia's change in legislation on reported crime rates from 1995 onwards, we perform an intervention time series analysis based on structural time series models. We empirically find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. For other violent crimes such as rape and aggravated assault the evidence of a significant reduction in crime rates is less evident or is not found. This empirical study for Virginia also provides an illustration of how an effective intervention time series analysis can be carried out in crime studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Suncica Vujic & Jacques Commandeur & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "Structural Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates: The Impact of Sentence Reform in Virginia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-007/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20120007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874, Decembrie.
    6. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
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    9. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & André Lucas & Kees van Montfort & Victor Van Der Geest, 2008. "Estimating systematic continuous‐time trends in recidivism using a non‐Gaussian panel data model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 62(1), pages 104-130, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Janko & Gurleen Popli, 2015. "Examining the link between crime and unemployment: a time-series analysis for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 4007-4019, August.
    2. Vujić Sunčica & Koopman Siem Jan & Commandeur J.F., 2012. "Economic Trends and Cycles in Crime: A Study for England and Wales," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(6), pages 652-677, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intervention time series analysis; Crime rates; Structural time series models; Unobserved components time series models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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