IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20110142.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Multi-Scenario Forecast of Urban Change: A Study on Urban Growth in the Algarve

Author

Listed:
  • Eric de Noronha Vaz

    (Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

  • Peter Nijkamp

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Marco Painho

    (Universidade NOVA de Lisboa)

  • Mario Gaetano

    (Universidade NOVA de Lisboa)

Abstract

This discussion paper resulted in an article in Landscape and Urban Planning (2012). Volume 104, issue 2, pages 201-211. The Algarve region in Portugal is often considered as one of the most appealing regions for tourism in the country. Its attractive location and moderate climate have since the mid-1960s brought increasing economic prosperity. As a result of the development of mass tourism, available land-use resources were widely exploited to create an integrated tourist industry. This region has shown an increasing loss of ecosystems resulting from the expansion of urban areas. This has also been accompanied by a significant abandonment of rural areas and hinterlands, leading to loss of agriculture and other rural activities. Clearly, urban growth needs considerable attention in the context of sustainable development, as often peri-urban areas with fragile ecosystems are becoming increasingly vulnerable. This paper aims to develop and apply key tools to quantify the changes of land use and how this affects the regional spatial scope by using multi-temporal inventorying an d accounting of land-use change matrices. Using Cellular Automata and a combined interpretation of CORINE Land Cover Data, it converges into a qualitative to quantitative interpretation of land use change by means of Multi-Criteria Evaluation. Finally, our analysis to identify the scenario with the best fit, based on the evolution of the actual 2006 land cover, enabled us to build a future urban growth model for 2020 which was quantitatively assessed. The outcome suggests a picture of continuing growth for the region of the Algarve within the framework of current policies and regressive spatial trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric de Noronha Vaz & Peter Nijkamp & Marco Painho & Mario Gaetano, 2011. "A Multi-Scenario Forecast of Urban Change: A Study on Urban Growth in the Algarve," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-142/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20110142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/11142.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Moravcsik, 1993. "Preferences and Power in the European Community: A Liberal Intergovernmentalist Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 473-524, December.
    2. Cohen, Barney, 2004. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-51, January.
    3. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongmi Koo & Janina Kleemann & Christine Fürst, 2020. "Integrating Ecosystem Services into Land-Use Modeling to Assess the Effects of Future Land-Use Strategies in Northern Ghana," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-24, October.
    2. José Leandro Barros & Alexandre Oliveira Tavares & Mário Monteiro & Pedro Pinto Santos, 2018. "Peri-Urbanization and Rurbanization in Leiria City: the Importance of a Planning Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Mário Monteiro & Alexandre Oliveira Tavares, 2015. "What is the Influence of the Planning Framework on the Land Use Change Trajectories? Photointerpretation Analysis in the 1958–2011 Period for a Medium/Small Sized City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-29, August.
    4. Sedigheh Asefi & João Matias & Carlos Gonçalves, 2020. "Transitions between Centralization and Metapolization: From City Development Strategy (CDS) to Peri-Urban Development Strategy (PDS)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Karima Kourtit & Jan Möhlmann & Peter Nijkamp & Jan Rouwendal, 2013. "The Spatial Distribution of Creative Industries and Cultural Heritage in The Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-195/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 29 Jan 2014.
    6. Bingmiao Zhu & Xun Zhu & Ran Zhang & Xiaolong Zhao, 2019. "Study of Multiple Land Use Planning Based on the Coordinated Development of Wetland Farmland: A Case Study of Fuyuan City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
    7. Bosch, Martí & Chenal, Jérôme & Joost, Stéphane, 2019. "Addressing urban sprawl from the complexity sciences," MPRA Paper 93489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rong Guo & Yujing Bai, 2019. "Simulation of an Urban-Rural Spatial Structure on the Basis of Green Infrastructure Assessment: The Case of Harbin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-21, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flavio Martins & Maria Fatima Almeida & Rodrigo Calili & Agatha Oliveira, 2020. "Design Thinking Applied to Smart Home Projects: A User-Centric and Sustainable Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Jochen Wulf, 2020. "Development of an AHP hierarchy for managing omnichannel capabilities: a design science research approach," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(1), pages 39-68, April.
    3. Wu, Zhangsheng & Li, Yue & Wang, Rong & Xu, Xu & Ren, Dongyang & Huang, Quanzhong & Xiong, Yunwu & Huang, Guanhua, 2023. "Evaluation of irrigation water saving and salinity control practices of maize and sunflower in the upper Yellow River basin with an agro-hydrological model based method," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    4. D’Inverno, Giovanna & Carosi, Laura & Romano, Giulia & Guerrini, Andrea, 2018. "Water pollution in wastewater treatment plants: An efficiency analysis with undesirable output," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 24-34.
    5. Nermin Kişi, 2019. "A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Tourism Development Using the A’WOT Hybrid Method: A Case Study of Zonguldak, Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Ayodele, T.R. & Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O. & Odigie, O. & Munda, J.L., 2018. "A multi-criteria GIS based model for wind farm site selection using interval type-2 fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: The case study of Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1853-1869.
    7. V. Srinivasan & G. Shainesh & Anand K. Sharma, 2015. "An approach to prioritize customer-based, cost-effective service enhancements," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(14), pages 747-762, October.
    8. Thomas Doleys, 2009. "Incomplete Contracting, Commission Discretion and the Origins of EU Merger Control," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47, pages 483-506, June.
    9. Patricija Bajec & Danijela Tuljak-Suban, 2019. "An Integrated Analytic Hierarchy Process—Slack Based Measure-Data Envelopment Analysis Model for Evaluating the Efficiency of Logistics Service Providers Considering Undesirable Performance Criteria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Abareshi, Maryam & Zaferanieh, Mehdi, 2019. "A bi-level capacitated P-median facility location problem with the most likely allocation solution," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-20.
    11. Sophie Jacquot & Cornelia Woll, 2003. "Usage of European Integration - Europeanisation from a Sociological Perspective," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01019642, HAL.
    12. Datu Buyung Agusdinata & Wenjuan Liu & Sinta Sulistyo & Philippe LeBillon & Je'anne Wegner, 2023. "Evaluating sustainability impacts of critical mineral extractions: Integration of life cycle sustainability assessment and SDGs frameworks," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(3), pages 746-759, June.
    13. Xinxin Liu & Xiaosheng Wang & Haiying Guo & Xiaojie An, 2021. "Benefit Allocation in Shared Water-Saving Management Contract Projects Based on Modified Expected Shapley Value," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 39-62, January.
    14. Sushil, 2019. "Efficient interpretive ranking process incorporating implicit and transitive dominance relationships," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1489-1516, December.
    15. Kokaraki, Nikoleta & Hopfe, Christina J. & Robinson, Elaine & Nikolaidou, Elli, 2019. "Testing the reliability of deterministic multi-criteria decision-making methods using building performance simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 991-1007.
    16. Hossein Yousefi & Saheb Ghanbari Motlagh & Mohammad Montazeri, 2022. "Multi-Criteria Decision-Making System for Wind Farm Site-Selection Using Geographic Information System (GIS): Case Study of Semnan Province, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-27, June.
    17. Wang, Bo & Li, Fan & Feng, Shuyi & Shen, Tong, 2020. "Transfer of development rights, farmland preservation, and economic growth: a case study of Chongqing’s land quotas trading program," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    18. Moumita Palchaudhuri & Sujata Biswas, 2016. "Application of AHP with GIS in drought risk assessment for Puruliya district, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1905-1920, December.
    19. Malte Tobias Kähler, 2011. "From German Rules to European Discretion: Policy’s Slippery Slope," Chapters, in: David Howden (ed.), Institutions in Crisis, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Eric Tremolada & Carlos Tassara & Olivier Costa, 2019. "Colombia y la Unión Europea. Una asociación cada vez más estrecha," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1101, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urban growth; Algarve; CORINE Land Cover; Scenario modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20110142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.