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A New Approach to Model Verification, Falsification and Selection

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew J. Buck

    (Department of Economics, Temple University)

  • George M. Lady

    (Department of Economics, Temple University)

Abstract

This paper shows that a qualitative analysis can always be used in evaluating a model's validity both in general and compared to other hypothesized models. The analysis relates the sign patterns and possibly other information of hypothesized structural arrays to the sign pattern of the estimated reduced form. It is demonstrated that such an analysis can always potentially falsify the hypothesized structural sign patterns or support an analysis of the relative likelihoods of alternative structural hypotheses, if neither are falsified. It is also noted that a partially specified structural hypothesis can be sometimes falsified by estimating as few as one reduced form equation. Additionally, zero restrictions in the structure can themselves be falsified; and, when so, current practice proposes estimated structural arrays that are impossible. It is further shown how the information content of the hypothesized structural sign patterns can be measured using Shannon's (1948) concept of entropy. In general, the lower the hypothesized structural sign pattern's entropy, the more a priori information it proposes about the sign pattern of the estimated reduced form. As an hypothesized structural sign pattern has a lower entropy, it is more subject to type 1 error and less subject to type 2 error.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Buck & George M. Lady, 2014. "A New Approach to Model Verification, Falsification and Selection," DETU Working Papers 1403, Department of Economics, Temple University.
    • Handle: RePEc:tem:wpaper:1403
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    File URL: http://www.cla.temple.edu/RePEc/documents/DETU_14_03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buck, Andrew J. & Lady, George M., 2005. "Falsifying economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 777-810, September.
    2. Lady, George M. & Buck, Andrew J., 2011. "Structural models, information and inherited restrictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2820-2831.
    3. Buck, Andrew J. & Lady, George M., 2012. "Structural sign patterns and reduced form restrictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 462-470.
    4. George Lady, 2000. "Topics in nonparametric comparative statics and stability," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 67-83, February.
    5. John M. Barron & Bradley T. Ewing & Glen R. Waddell, 2000. "The Effects Of High School Athletic Participation On Education And Labor Market Outcomes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 409-421, August.
    6. Kelvin Lancaster, 1966. "The Solution of Qualitative Comparative Static Problems," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 278-295.
    7. Strickland, Allyn D & Weiss, Leonard W, 1976. "Advertising, Concentration, and Price-Cost Margins," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1109-1121, October.
    8. Ritschard, Gilbert, 1983. "Computable Qualitative Comparative Static Techniques," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1145-1168, July.
    9. Kristin F. Butcher & Anne Case, 1994. "The Effect of Sibling Sex Composition on Women's Education and Earnings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 531-563.
    10. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew J. Buck & George M. Lady, 2016. "Estimating a Falsified Model," DETU Working Papers 1601, Department of Economics, Temple University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model Verification; Falsification; structural arrays; sign pattern; entropy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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