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The Staggering Rise of the South?

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  • Yilmaz Akyüz

    (The South Centre)

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    Abstract

    This paper argues that the unprecedented acceleration of growth in the developing world in the new millennium in comparison with advanced economies is due not so much to improvements in underlying fundamentals as to exceptionally favourable global economic conditions, shaped mainly by unsustainable policies in advanced economies. The only developing economy which has had a major impact on global conditions, notably on commodity prices, is China. However, growth in China has been driven first by a rapid expansion of exports to advanced economies and more recently, after the global crisis, by an investment boom, neither of which is replicable or sustainable over the longer term. To maintain a rapid growth, export-led Asian economies need to reduce their dependence on foreign markets. For Latin American and African commodity exporters, gaining greater autonomy and achieving rapid and stable growth depend on their success in reducing reliance on capital flows and commodity earnings – the two key determinants of their growth which are largely beyond national control.

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    File URL: http://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/RP44_YA-FIN.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Turkish Economic Association in its series Working Papers with number 2012/3.

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    Length: 50 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/3

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    Related research

    Keywords: global growth; decoupling; developing and emerging economies; advanced economies;

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    1. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IDB Publications 6736, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "House price booms, current account deficits, and low interest rates," Staff Reports 541, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Poonam Gupta & Rana Hasan & Utsav Kumar, 2008. "What Constrains Indian Manufacturing?," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22162, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Robert Koopman & William Powers & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains," NBER Working Papers 16426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Juan Carlos Gómez-Sabaini & Bruno Martorano, 2012. "A New Fiscal Pact, Tax Policy Changes and Income Inequality," Working Papers - Economics wp2012_03.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    6. Athukorala, Prema-Chandra, 2011. "South-South Trade: An Asian Perspective," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 265, Asian Development Bank.
    7. Sébastien Miroudot & Alexandros Ragoussis, 2009. "Vertical Trade, Trade Costs and FDI," OECD Trade Policy Papers 89, OECD Publishing.
    8. Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," IZA Discussion Papers 3442, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Donghyun & Wang, Jing, 2011. "The Role of the People’s Republic of China in International Fragmentation and Production Networks: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 87, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci & TengTeng Xu, 2011. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," IDB Publications 44738, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Lewis, W Arthur, 1980. "The Slowing Down of the Engine of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 555-64, September.
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