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Türkiye’de Faiz Oraný ile Döviz Kuru Arasýndaki Ýliþki: Faizlerin Düþürülmesi Kurlarý Yükseltirmi?

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Author Info

  • Orhan Karaca

    (Ekonomist Dergisi)

Abstract

Türkiye’de son birkaç yýldýr en çok tartýþýlan konulardan biri faiz oraný ile döviz kuru arasýndaki iliþkidir. Bazý iktisatçýlar döviz kurlarýnýn uzun süredir yerinde saymasýnýn nedenini faiz oranlarýnýn yüksekliðine baðlamakta ve Merkez Bankasý’nýn kýsa vadeli faiz oranlarýný daha fazla ve daha hýzlý indirmesi gerektiðini savunmaktadýr. Buna karþýlýk Merkez Bankasý ise kýsa vadeli faiz oranlarý ile döviz kuru arasýndaki iliþkinin çok boyutlu ve karmaþýk bir niteliðe sahip olduðunu ileri sürmekte ve faiz oranlarýnýn daha hýzlý düþürülmesi halinde kurlarýn yükselmesi yerine düþmesinin de söz konusu olabileceðini belirtmektedir. Bu çalýþmada Türkiye’deki döviz kuru ile faiz oraný arasýndaki iliþki araþtýrýlmýþ ve Merkez Bankasý’nýn görüþünü destekleyen bulgulara ulaþýlmýþtýr. Ocak 1990-Temmuz 2005 dönemine ait verilerle yapýlan analizde döviz kuru ile faiz oraný arasýnda anlamlý bir iliþki tespit edilememiþtir. Araþtýrma sadece dalgalý kur dönemi için yapýldýðýnda ise iki deðiþken arasýnda pozitif yönlü fakat zayýf bir iliþki bulunmuþtur.

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File URL: http://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/karaca-05.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Turkish Economic Association in its series Working Papers with number 2005/14.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tek:wpaper:2005/14

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Related research

Keywords: Döviz kuru; faiz oraný; eþbütünleþme; sýnýr testi; ARDL modeli;

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