Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Direction, Timing and Causality Relationships Between The Cyclical Components of Real and Financial Variables During The Financial Liberalization Period in Turkey


Author Info

  • Aysu Ýnsel

    (Marmara University)

  • Mehmet Ali Soytaþ

    (Marmara University)

  • Seda Gündüz

    (York University)

Registered author(s):


    The purpose of this paper is the determination of sources and pattern of business cycle in Turkey throughout the period 1988-2002 using quarterly data. The question of the paper is “Has financial liberalization increased the fragility of the financial and real sides of the Turkish economy?” The quantitative analysis of the paper includes the cross correlation and causality analysis. Financial development indicators are the bank credits and capital flows, efficiency indicators are the domestic and foreign interest rate spreads. It has been found that the pattern of real GDP is determined by demand side variables, whereas the source of fluctuations in the real GDP is the financial variables in Turkey. External spread, capital flows, and domestic spread are the transmission channels of a shock to the real economy.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Turkish Economic Association in its series Working Papers with number 2004/1.

    as in new window
    Length: 42 pages
    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:tek:wpaper:2004/1

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Hoşdere Cad. 24/4, TR-Çankaya, Ankara
    Phone: (+90 312) 468 25 89
    Fax: (+90 312) 468 25 99
    Web page:
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: business cycle; liberalization; decomposition; efficiency indicator; development indicator; Turkey;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:


    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.



    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


    Access and download statistics


    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tek:wpaper:2004/1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ercan Uygur).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.