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News, Housing Boom-Bust Cycles, and Monetary Policy

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  • Birol Kanik
  • Wei Xiao

Abstract

We explore the possibility that a housing market boom-bust cycle may arise when public beliefs are driven by news shocks. News, imperfect and noisy by nature, may generate expectations that are overly optimistic or pessimistic. Over-optimism easily leads to excessive accumulation of housing assets, and creates a housing boom that is not based on fundamentals. When the news is found false or inaccurate, investors revert their actions, and a downturn in the housing market follows. By altering agents� net worth conditions, a housing cycle can have significant repercussions in the aggregate economy. In this paper, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model that can give rise to a news-driven housing boom-bust cycle, and we consider how monetary policies should respond to it.

Suggested Citation

  • Birol Kanik & Wei Xiao, 2014. "News, Housing Boom-Bust Cycles, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1415, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1415
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. News, Housing Boom-Bust Cycles, and Monetary Policy
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2014-06-18 14:08:07

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    Cited by:

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    2. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2016. "Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy," Staff Working Papers 16-31, Bank of Canada.
    3. Tan, Zhengxun & Tang, Qianqian & Meng, Juan, 2022. "The effect of monetary policy on China’s housing prices before and after 2017: A dynamic analysis in DSGE model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    5. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Davaasukh Damdinjav, 2021. "Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 38(02), pages 279-317, September.
    7. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    9. Birol Kanik, 2012. "Learning, Monetary Policy, and Housing Prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(1), pages 13-36.
    10. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    11. Koltsova Anna A. & Starobinskaya Nadegda M. & Chekmarev Oleg P., 2018. "Art Market: Distinctive Features And Value Of Art Objects," Annals of marketing-mba, Department of Marketing, Marketing MBA (RSconsult), vol. 4, December.
    12. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    13. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2021. "News-driven international credit cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; News; Monetary policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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