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Islenmis Gida Fiyatlarini Belirleyen Faktorler

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Author Info

  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya
  • Tugrul Gurgur
  • Fethi Ogunc

Abstract

2005 yili ortalarindan itibaren uluslararasi tarimsal ham madde fiyatlarinda meydana gelen yuksek oranli artislar, aralarinda Turkiye’nin de bulundugu bir cok ulkede enflasyon oranlarinin yukselmesine neden olmaktadir. Politika yapicilari acisindan yurt ici gida fiyatlarindaki hareketlerin kaynaklarinin anlasilmasi ve soz konusu fiyatlarin para ve maliyepolitikasi uygulamalarina ne olcude tepki verdiklerinin ortaya cikarilmasi, uygulanan politikalarin etkinligini olcmek bakimindan onem tasimaktadir. Calisma iki kisimdan olusmaktadir. Ilk kisimda Turkiye’de ve dunyada son donemde gozlenen tarim ve gida sektoru gelismeleri incelenmistir. Ikinci kisimda, islenmis gida fiyatlari enflasyonunun belirleyicileri ampirik olarak analiz edilmistir. Elde edilen bulgular, islenmis gida fiyatlari enflasyonunda son donemde gozlenen hizlanmanin (yurt ici) kurakligin neden oldugu arz yonlu soklardan ve uluslararasi gida fiyatlarindaki artislardan kaynaklandigina isaret etmektedir. Toplam talep kosullarinin etkisi goreli olarak dusuk duzeydedir. Sicaklik seviyesinin mevsim normallerinin uzerine cikarak yuksek oranda artis gostermesi islenmis gida fiyatlari enflasyonunu artirirken, sicakliklarin mevsim normallerinin uzerinde ancak dusuk boyutta artis gostermesi gida enflasyonunu yavaslatici bir etki yapmaktadir. Uluslararasi fiyatlarin islenmis gida urunleri fiyatlari uzerindeki etkisi islenmis gida tuketim mallarindan ziyade, islenmis ara mali ithalati kanali uzerinden gerceklesmekte ve bu etki en çok iki çeyrek gecikmeyle belirginlik kazanmaktadir. Doviz kurundan islenmis gida fiyatlarina geciskenlik ise daha hizli yasanmakta ve ilk uc ayda etkisini hissetirmektedir.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 0809.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0809

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