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Turkiye’de Uretici ve Tuketici Fiyatlari Arasindaki Iliski Uzerine Bir Degerlendirme

Author

Listed:
  • Oguz Atuk
  • Fethi Ogunc
  • M. Utku Ozmen
  • Cagri Sarikaya

Abstract

[TR] Bu notta, TUFE ve UFE enflasyon oranlari arasindaki farklilasmanin nedenleri ozetlendikten sonra iki endeks arasindaki geciskenlik iliskisi incelenmektedir. Uretici fiyatlarinin vergi haric derleniyor olmasi ve hizmet fiyatlarini icermemesi, islenmemis gida urunleri ile tarim urunlerinin her iki endekste esanli kapsamlarinin ortusmemesi, tuketici fiyatlarinda goreli payi yuksek belirli urunlerde dolayli vergi artislarinin gozlenmesi, uretici fiyatlarinin kur ve ithalat fiyat geciskenliginin tuketici fiyatlarina kiyasla yuksek olmasi aradaki donemsel farkin temel belirleyicileridir. Ancak, TUFE ve UFE enflasyonlarinin uzun donemli ortalamalarinin birbirine paralel olmasi ve uretici ve tuketici fiyatlarinin uzun donemde birbirine yakinsiyor olmasi sebebiyle donemsel farklarin sistematik bir ayrismaya isaret etmedigi degerlendirilmektedir. Etki-tepki analizlerine dayanan ampirik bulgular, en yakindan iliskili olmasi beklenen cekirdek fiyat tanimlarinda dahi uretici fiyatlarindan tuketici fiyatlarina geciskenligin tam (bire-bir) olmadigi yonundeki gorsel analizleri desteklemektedir. [EN] In this note, the reasons for the difference between CPI and PPI inflation rates are discussed and the pass-through from producer to consumer prices is analyzed. The major determinants of this temporary difference are as follows : Compilation of PPI with tax free prices and the exclusion of prices of services; the mismatch between the contemporary baskets of unprocessed food and agriculture products; indirect tax adjustments for the selected products with a relatively high share in the CPI; the relatively faster and higher pass-through of exchange rate and foreign prices on PPI. Nonetheless, given that the average annual CPI and PPI inflations are similar and that consumer and producer prices converge in the long term, the temporary difference between the two indices does not point to a systematic divergence. Empirical results support visual inspections that imply partial pass-through from producer to consumer prices even when core measures are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguz Atuk & Fethi Ogunc & M. Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Turkiye’de Uretici ve Tuketici Fiyatlari Arasindaki Iliski Uzerine Bir Degerlendirme," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1321, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1321
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Selen Baser & Sevim Kosem & Fethi Ogunc, 2012. "Turkiye’de Enflasyon : Sektorel ve Uluslararasi Bazda Karsilastirmali Bir Analiz ve One Cikan Noktalar," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1220, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2011. "Doviz Kuru ve Ithalat Fiyatlarinin Enflasyona Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1114, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Caglar Yunculer, 2011. "Pass-Through of External Factors into Price Indicators In Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 71-84.
    5. Fethi Ogunc, 2010. "Turkiye'de Islenmemis Gida Enflasyonunda Oynaklik : Durum Tespiti," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2012. "Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Guclu Mevsimsellik ve Ongorulemeyen Oynaklik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1216, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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