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Inflation Dynamics in Turkey : In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure

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  • Selen Baser
  • Hande Kucuk
  • Fethi Ogunc

Abstract

[EN] We provide Bayesian estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) to explain the dynamics of the consumer price inflation in Turkey, focusing particularly on the domestic component of the real marginal cost. We find that the baseline model which uses current and lagged values of the output gap as a measure of the domestic real marginal cost does a better job at accounting for the consumer price inflation in Turkey compared to alternative models which incorporate the unit labor cost. On the other hand, estimations of the hybrid NKPC for the services inflation point to the importance of the unit labor cost for the inflation dynamics in this sector. [TR] Bu calismada Bayesci yontemler kullanilarak Turkiye icin Yeni Keynesci Phillips Egrisi (NKPC) tahminleri elde edilmekte ; ozellikle yurt ici kaynakli maliyet baskilarinin enflasyon uzerindeki etkileri uzerinde durulmaktadir. Yurt ici reel marjinal maliyet olcutu olarak cikti acigini kullanan baz modelin, reel birim ucret serilerini iceren alternatif modellere gore TUFE enflasyonunu aciklamakta daha basarili oldugu bulunmustur. Diger taraftan, hizmet enflasyonu icin yapilan NKPC tahminleri, reel birim ucretlerin bu sektordeki enflasyon dinamikleri uzerinde onemli rol oynadigini gostermektedir.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series CBT Research Notes in Economics with number 1311.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1311

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