Enflasyon Belirsizligi ve Beklentilerdeki Uyusmazlik
Abstract[TR] Bu notta TCMB Beklenti Anketi verileri kullanilarak Turkiye icin bir enflasyon belirsizligi olcutu olusturulmaya calisilmis ve anket katilimcilari arasindaki uyusmazligin olusturulan bu olcut icin bir gosterge olarak kullanilip kullanilamayacagi arastirilmistir. Bulgular, 2006 oncesi donem icin uyusmazligin enflasyon belirsizligi gostergesi olarak kullanilabilecegine isaret ederken, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimiyle beraber bu iliskinin kayboldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. [EN] This note introduces a measure for inflation uncertainty in Turkey by using the CBRT Survey of Expectations and investigates whether the disagreement among the survey participants can be used as a proxy for inflation uncertainty. Results reveal the importance of time period analyzed. In particular, disagreement seems to be a good proxy for inflation uncertainty 2001-2006 period while this relationship vanishes with the inflation targeting regime after 2006.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series CBT Research Notes in Economics with number 1104.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-14 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rich, Robert W & Butler, J S, 1998. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 411-19, August.
- Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
- Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Soner Baskaya).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.