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Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?

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  • Nils Herger

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    (Study Center Gerzensee)

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    Abstract

    Using count data on the number of bank failures in US states during the 1960 to 2006 period, this paper endeavors to establish how far sources of economic risk (recessions, high interest rates, in ation) or differences in solvency and branching regulation can explain some of the fragility in banking. Assuming that variables are predetermined, lagged values provide instruments to absorb potential endogeneity between the number of bank failures and economic and regulatory conditions. Results suggest that bank failures are not merely self-fulfilling prophecies but relate systematically to inflation as well as to policy changes in banking regulation. Furthermore, in terms of statistical and economic significance, the distribution and development of bankruptcies across US states depends crucially on past bank failures suggesting that contagion provides an important channel through which banking crises emerge.

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    Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 08.04.

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    Length: 22 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0804

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    1. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
    2. Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-92, June.
    3. X. Freixas & B. Parigi & J-C. Rochet, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by theCentral Bank," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 47, Netherlands Central Bank.
    4. Hayne E. Leland and David H. Pyle., 1976. "Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 41, University of California at Berkeley.
    5. Barth, James R. & Caprio Jr., Gerard & Levine, Ross, 2001. "Bank regulation and supervision : what works best?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2725, The World Bank.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 8937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Davutyan, Nurhan, 1989. "Bank failures as Poisson variates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 333-338.
    8. Gary Gorton, 1986. "Banking panics and business cycles," Working Papers 86-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    10. V.V. Chari & Ravi Jagannathan, 1984. "Banking Panics," Discussion Papers 618, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    11. Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Frank Windmeijer, 1999. "Individual effects and dynamics in count data models," IFS Working Papers W99/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Joshua N. Feinman, 1993. "Reserve requirements: history, current practice, and potential reform," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 569-589.
    13. Hellwig, Martin, 1994. "Liquidity provision, banking, and the allocation of interest rate risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1363-1389, August.
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