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Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?

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Author Info
Andreas M. Fischer () (Swiss National Bank)

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Abstract

The monetary implications arising from EMU for Swiss monetary policy show up primarily in the exchange rate. Until now, fluctuations in the Swiss franc against the euro have been surprisingly moderate. The Swiss franc has thus tracked the euro's decline against the US dollar without experiencing strong inflationary pressure and a convergence in the interest-rate differential: a paradoxical result for a small open economy. This paper examines critically whether the recent record reveals information about a change in SNB monetary policy. It also attemps to shed light on the SNB's ability to implement an independent monetary policy with the new landscape defined by EMU. Four hypotheses of euro tracking are considered.

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Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 02.03.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0203

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Cedric Tille & Nicolas Stoffels & Olga Gorbachev, 2001. "To what extent does productivity drive the dollar?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug. [Downloadable!]
  5. Georg Rich, 2000. "Switzerland and the euro," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(3), pages 309-311, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-078, University of California at Berkeley.
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  9. Hau, Harald & Killeen, William & Moore, Michael J, 2000. "The Euro as an International Currency: Explaining Puzzling First Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rich, Georg, 1997. "Monetary targets as a policy rule: Lessons from the Swiss experience," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 113-141, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Nelson, Daniel B., 1992. "Filtering and forecasting with misspecified ARCH models I : Getting the right variance with the wrong model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 61-90. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  13. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Marwan Elkhoury, 2005. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model of A Monetary Policy Rule for Switzerland. The Case of the Lucas and Friedman Hypothesis," HEI Working Papers 01-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
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