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Do External Political Pressures Affect the Renminbi Exchange Rate?

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Author Info

  • Laurent Pauwels

    () (The University of Sydney Business School)

  • Li-Gang Liu

    (ANZ Research ANZ, Hong Kong)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether external political pressure for faster renminbi (RMB) appreciation affect both the daily returns and the conditional volatility of the RMB central parity rate. We construct several political pressure indicators pertaining to the RMB exchange rate, with a special emphasis on the US pressure, to test the hypothesis. After controlling for Chinese macroeconomic surprise news, we find that US and non-US political pressure does not have a significant influence on RMB's daily returns. However, evidence suggests that political pressures, and especially those from the US, have statistically significant impacts on the conditional volatility of the RMB. Furthermore, we conduct the same exercise on the 12-month RMB nondeliverable forward rate (NDF). We find that the NDF market is highly responsive to macroeconomic surprise news and there is some evidence that Sino-US bilateral meetings affect the conditional volatility of the RMB NDF.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics in its series Working Papers with number 10/2011.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision: Jul 2011
Handle: RePEc:syb:wpbsba:10/2011

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Web page: http://sydney.edu.au/business/ome
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Keywords: Renminbi exchange rate; Event studies; Political pressures; Non-deliverable forward; Macroeconomic news;

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References

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  1. Michael Funke & Roberta Colavecchio, 2009. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific onshore and offshore currency forwards markets," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20903, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  2. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2008. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling us something about where the Renminbi – US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2272, CESifo Group Munich.
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  7. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
  8. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, 04.
  9. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
  10. Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 363, European Central Bank.
  11. Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison, 2002. "Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 03-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Xiaojing Zhang & Tao Sun, 2009. "Spillovers of the U.S. Subprime Financial Turmoil to Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR: Evidence from Stock Markets," IMF Working Papers 09/166, International Monetary Fund.

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