IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/swn/wpaper/2018-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Multiple credit ratings and market heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Vu Tran

    (School of Management, Swansea University)

  • Rasha Alsakka

    (Bangor Business School, Bangor University)

  • Owain ap Gwilym

    (Bangor Business School, Bangor University)

Abstract

We propose a model in which news from multiple credit rating agencies interacts with market heterogeneity. The model illustrates that the first messenger discloses new information while an additional messenger(s) plays an important role of coordinating heterogeneous beliefs. Empirical investigations based on sovereign credit ratings, foreign exchange and equity markets confirm that rating news coordinates investors’ beliefs. Rating news from both types of messenger(s) induces a significant impact on exchange rates and stock indices. Volatility measures increase in response to news from the first messenger while ex-post volatility reduces following news from an additional messenger

Suggested Citation

  • Vu Tran & Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2018. "Multiple credit ratings and market heterogeneity," Working Papers 2018-26, Swansea University, School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:swn:wpaper:2018-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rahwebdav.swan.ac.uk/repec/pdf/WP2018-26.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2018
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
    2. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    3. Bae, Kee-Hong & Kang, Jun-Koo & Wang, Jin, 2015. "Does Increased Competition Affect Credit Ratings? A Reexamination of the Effect of Fitch’s Market Share on Credit Ratings in the Corporate Bond Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(5), pages 1011-1035, October.
    4. Li, Tao & Muzere, Mark L., 2010. "Heterogeneity and Volatility Puzzles in International Finance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(6), pages 1485-1516, December.
    5. Dion Bongaerts & K. J. Martijn Cremers & William N. Goetzmann, 2012. "Tiebreaker: Certification and Multiple Credit Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 113-152, February.
    6. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael W., 2006. "The effect of macroeconomic news on beliefs and preferences: Evidence from the options market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1997-2039, November.
    7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    8. Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2006. "A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 61-74, January.
    9. Mathis, Jérôme & McAndrews, James & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2009. "Rating the raters: Are reputation concerns powerful enough to discipline rating agencies?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 657-674, July.
    10. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    12. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn & Anjolein Schmeits, 2006. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 81-118.
    13. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
    14. Evan W. Anderson & Eric Ghysels & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2005. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 875-924.
    15. Heitor Almeida & Igor Cunha & Miguel A. Ferreira & Felipe Restrepo, 2017. "The Real Effects of Credit Ratings: The Sovereign Ceiling Channel," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 249-290, February.
    16. An, Heng (Hunter) & Chan, Kam C., 2008. "Credit ratings and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 584-595, December.
    17. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1433-1466, April.
    18. Jory, Surendranath R. & Ngo, Thanh N. & Wang, Daphne, 2016. "Credit ratings and the premiums paid in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 93-104.
    19. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, June.
    20. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2009. "Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-45.
    21. Jess N. Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia & John E. Hund, 2017. "Credit Ratings Across Asset Classes: A Long-Term Perspective," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 465-509.
    22. Robert F. Dittmar, 2008. "Do Sovereign Bonds Benefit Corporate Bonds in Emerging Markets?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 1983-2014, September.
    23. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December.
    24. Vu, Huong & Alsakka, Rasha & Gwilym, Owain ap, 2015. "The credit signals that matter most for sovereign bond spreads with split rating," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 174-191.
    25. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    26. Manuel Adelino & Miguel A. Ferreira, 2016. "Bank Ratings and Lending Supply: Evidence from Sovereign Downgrades," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1709-1746.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Qureshi, Anum, 2022. "Impact of sovereign credit ratings on systemic risk and the moderating role of regulatory reforms: An international investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Vu, Huong & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2022. "Does competition improve sovereign credit rating quality?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Tran, Vu & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2014. "Sovereign rating actions and the implied volatility of stock index options," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 101-113.
    4. Gao, George P. & Lu, Xiaomeng & Song, Zhaogang & Yan, Hongjun, 2019. "Disagreement beta," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 96-113.
    5. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sean Flynn & Andra Ghent, 2018. "Competition and Credit Ratings After the Fall," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1672-1692, April.
    7. Patrycja Klusak & Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Moritz Kraemer & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2023. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
    8. Anna Bayona & Oana Peia & Razvan Vlahu, 2023. "Credit Ratings and Investments," Working Papers 776, DNB.
    9. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2005. "Variation, jumps, market frictions and high frequency data in financial econometrics," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    10. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Spyros Xanthopoulos‐Sisinis & Apostolos P. Refenes, 2013. "The Role of High‐Frequency Intra‐daily Data, Daily Range and Implied Volatility in Multi‐period Value‐at‐Risk Forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 561-576, September.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    12. Adem Atmaz & Suleyman Basak, 2018. "Belief Dispersion in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1225-1279, June.
    13. Stefano Lovo & Philippe Raimbourg & Federica Salvadè, 2022. "Credit rating agencies, information asymmetry and US bond liquidity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1863-1896, October.
    14. Attig, Najah & Driss, Hamdi & El Ghoul, Sadok, 2020. "Rating standards around the world: A puzzle?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    15. Goergen, Marc & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Koutroumpis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Do multiple credit ratings reduce money left on the table? Evidence from U.S. IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski, 2009. "High-Frequency and Model-Free Volatility Estimators," Working Papers 2009-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    17. Klusak, Patrycja & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2019. "The impact of ESMA regulatory identifiers on the quality of ratings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    18. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs with herding behaviors and asset pricing in two goods world," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Hung, Mingyi & Kraft, Pepa & Wang, Shiheng & Yu, Gwen, 2022. "Market power and credit rating standards: Global evidence," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    20. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit ratings; Information content; Market heterogeneity; Price volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:swn:wpaper:2018-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Syed Shabi-Ul-Hassan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edswauk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.