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Conditional Efficacy of Sterilized Intervention

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Author Info
Jun, Jongbyung () (Suffolk University, Department of Economics)
Abstract

The noise-trading or coordination channel hypothesis implies that sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange market is effective if certain conditions are satisfied, but ineffective otherwise. The hypothesis is tested with a three-regime threshold model and daily data on actual intervention by US and German central banks. The main finding is that if central banks choose the optimal timing in light of the trend-chasing behaviors of noise traders, such strategic intervention is effective in moving the exchange rate in the desired direction.

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Paper provided by Suffolk University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2008-1.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 15 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:suf:wpaper:2008-1

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Web page: http://www.suffolk.edu/college/2175.html
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Related research
Keywords: Central bank intervention; Threshold model; Coordination channel;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. repec:att:wimass:1919997 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    Other versions:
  4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 2006. "Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 199-219, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Hansen, Bruce E, 1999. " Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(5), pages 551-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rasmus Fatum, 2002. "Post-Plaza intervention in the DEM/USD exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 556-567, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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