A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election
AbstractThe Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1201.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published
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United Kingdom General Election; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; spatial econometrics;
Other versions of this item:
- Jensen, Christa & Lacombe, Donald & Mcintyre, Stuart, 2012. "A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-20, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2012-02-27 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-GEO-2012-02-27 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2012-02-27 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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