Can Migrants Save Greece From Ageing? A Computable General Equilibrium Approach Using G-AMOS
AbstractThe population of Greece is projected to age in the course of the next three decades. This paper combines demographic projections with a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to assess the macroeconomic impact of these future demographic trends. The simulation strategy adopted in Lisenkova et. al. (2008) is also employed here. The size and age composition of the population in the future depends on current and future values of demographic parameters such as the fertility, mortality rates and the level of annual net migration. We use FIV-FIV software in order to project population changes for 30 years. Total population and working age population changes are introduced to the G-AMOS modelling framework calibrated for the Greek economy for the year 2004. Positive net migration is able to cancel the negative impacts of an ageing population that would otherwise occur as a result of the shrinking of the labour force. The policy implication is that a viable, long-lasting migration policy should be implemented, while the importance of policies that could increase fertility should also be considered.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0801.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE
Phone: +44 (0)141 548 3842
Fax: +44 (0)141 548 4445
Web page: http://www.strath.ac.uk/economics/
More information through EDIRC
CGE modelling; ageing population; migration; demography; Greece;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2008-06-07 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2008-06-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2008-06-07 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-MIG-2008-06-07 (Economics of Human Migration)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harrigan, Frank & McGregor, Peter G. & Dourmashkin, Neil & Perman, Roger & Swales, Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 1991. "AMOS : A macro-micro model of Scotland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 424-479, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kirsty Hall).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.