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Can Migrants Save Greece From Ageing? A Computable General Equilibrium Approach Using G-AMOS

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  • Nikos Pappas

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    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

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    Abstract

    The population of Greece is projected to age in the course of the next three decades. This paper combines demographic projections with a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to assess the macroeconomic impact of these future demographic trends. The simulation strategy adopted in Lisenkova et. al. (2008) is also employed here. The size and age composition of the population in the future depends on current and future values of demographic parameters such as the fertility, mortality rates and the level of annual net migration. We use FIV-FIV software in order to project population changes for 30 years. Total population and working age population changes are introduced to the G-AMOS modelling framework calibrated for the Greek economy for the year 2004. Positive net migration is able to cancel the negative impacts of an ageing population that would otherwise occur as a result of the shrinking of the labour force. The policy implication is that a viable, long-lasting migration policy should be implemented, while the importance of policies that could increase fertility should also be considered.

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    File URL: http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/departments/economics/researchdiscussionpapers/2008/media_138493_en.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0801.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:0801

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    Keywords: CGE modelling; ageing population; migration; demography; Greece;

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    1. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(3), pages 205-248, December.
    2. Harrigan, Frank & McGregor, Peter G. & Dourmashkin, Neil & Perman, Roger & Swales, Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 1991. "AMOS : A macro-micro model of Scotland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 424-479, October.
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