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Unemployment in the OECD: models and mysteries

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  • Junankar, P.N.
  • Madsen, J.B.

Abstract

This paper compares models used to explain OECD unemployment. The models suggest that the "natural rate of unemployment" has been driven up mainly by wage push factors. Panel data on twenty-two OECD countries are used to investigate the explanatory power of these models over the past two decades. Our estimates reveal that coefficients on key variables often turn out with signs which are at odds with the theories or are insignificant and that a second order autoregressive model performs nearly as well as all the other models. The conclusion offers some directions for future research.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 9648.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 1996
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Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:9648

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  1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen, 1986. "Unemployment in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S121-69, Supplemen.
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  7. Laurence M. Ball, 1997. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  24. repec:sae:niesru:v:111:y::i:1:p:62-85 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Elgin, Ceyhun & Kuzubas, Tolga Umut, 2013. "Wage-productivity gap in OECD economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7(21), pages 1-21.
  2. Michèle Belot & Jan C. van Ours, 2004. "Does the recent success of some OECD countries in lowering their unemployment rates lie in the clever design of their labor market reforms?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 621-642, October.
  3. Nir Klein, 2012. "Real Wage, Labor Productivity, and Employment Trends in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 12/92, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja), 2011. "The Global Economic Crisis: Long-Term Unemployment in the OECD," IZA Discussion Papers 6057, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Andrew S. Downes, 1998. "Un análisis económico del desempleo en Trinidad y Tobago," Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department 4135, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  6. Andrew S. Downes, 1998. "An Economic Analysis of Unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago," Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department 4134, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Cowgill, Matt, 2013. "A Shrinking Slice of the Pie: The Labour Income Share in Australia," MPRA Paper 46209, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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