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The Long Wave of Conditional Convergence

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Author Info
Tong, Jian

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Abstract

We calculate the time series of the speed of convergence for 21 high-income countries over the period: 1953-1996, using low-pass filtered time series of per-capita GDP which are thus isolated from the influence of the short-run business cycle components. The observed patterns contradict the conventional ‘time-invariant speed of convergence’ hypothesis. Furthermore, dynamic panel data analysis provides strong evidence of the existence of stationary long cycles in the per capita GDP time series. We develop and estimate a technology-diffusion-based endogenous growth model, which shows that the endogenous growth of the domestic knowledge stock can account for the long cycles observed in the data. Keywords; trend reversion, speed of convergence, growth cycles

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Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 0614.

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Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:0614

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  2. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "The Elusive Empirical Shadow of Growth Convergence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1398, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Barro, R.J. & Mankiw, N.G. & Sala-i-Martin, X., 1992. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," Papers 655, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. " Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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