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Demographics and the politics of capital taxation in a life-cycle economy

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Mateos-Planas, Xavier

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Abstract

This paper investigates the consequences of changes in the age composition of the population for the mix of tax rates on labour and capital income when these policies are decided through democratic institutions. The analysis is conducted within a general equilibrium, overlapping-generations model where agents live for many periods, and tax rates are determined through voting by forward looking agents. A version of the model calibrated to the US economic conditions and 1990 age structure is used to study quantitatively the effects of past and projected demographic shifts in the US. The younger voting-age population in 1990 relative to 1965 can account for the large decline in the relative capital tax rate observed between these two years. The older voting-age population expected in 2025 is shown to lead to a sharp increase in capital taxation. These results reflect the tension between the induced changes in the decisive voter's age and in macroeconomic conditions.

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Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 0610.

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  3. Jonathan Heathcote, 2003. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-19, Georgetown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Andrés Erosa & Martin Gervais, 1998. "Optimal Taxation in Life-Cycle Economies," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9812, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Representative democracy and capital taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 53-70, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gregory W. Huffman, 1996. "Endogenous tax determination and the distribution of wealth," Working Papers 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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  7. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001. "The Survival of the Welfare State," Economics Working Papers 603, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Alesina, Alberto & Rodrik, Dani, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-90, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Per Krusell & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 1999. "On the Size of U.S. Government: Political Economy in the Neoclassical Growth Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1156-1181, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Phillip Swagel & Efraim Sadka & Assaf Razin, 2002. "The Aging of the Population and the Size of the Welfare State," IMF Working Papers 02/68, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 1(advances/), pages 1008-1008. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Heathcote, Jonathan & Storesletten, Kjetil & Violante, Giovanni L, 2004. "The Cross-Sectional Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 4296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Jorge Soares, Marina Azzimonti, Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Jorge Soares, 2006. "Optimal Policy and (the Lack of) Time Inconsistency: Insights from Simple Models," Working Papers 06-08, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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