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Threshold Effects In Cointegrating Relationships

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Author Info
Gonzalo, J.
Pitarakis, J.

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Abstract

In this paper we introduce threshold type nonlinearities within a single equation cointegrating regression model and propose a testing procedure for testing the null hypothesis of linear cointegration versus cointegration with threshold effects. Our framework allows the modelling of long run equilibrium relationships that may switch according to the magnitude of a threshold variable assumed to be stationary and ergodic and thus constitutes an attempt to deal econometrically with the potential presence of multiple long-run equilibria. The framework is flexible enough to accomodate regressor endogeneity and serial correlation. An important component of our analysis is also the development of a formal definition of the concept of threshold cointegration. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to show that the proposed procedures have good finite sample properties. Keywords; Nonlinear Cointegration, Multiple Long Run Equilibria, Thresholds, Nonlinear Dynamics, Unit Roots. JEL; C22, C50.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 0506.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:0506

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  1. Dennis Kristensen & Anders Rahbek, 2007. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-38, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stephens, Emma C. & Mabaya, Edward, 2008. "Spatial Price Adjustment with and without Trade," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6538, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  3. Goetz, Linde & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Considering threshold effects in the long-run equilibrium in a vector error correction model: An application to the German apple market," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44247, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
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