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Consensus, Contagion and Clustering in a Space-Time Model of Public Opinion Formation

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Author Info
Ianni, A.
Corradi, V.

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Abstract

We study a simple model of public opinion formation that posits that interaction between neighbouring agents leads to bandwagons in the dynamics of individual opinions, as well as in that of the aggregate process. We show that in different specifications of the model, there is a tendency for the process to show consensus on one of the two competing opinions. We show how a publicly available poll of current public opinion may lead to a form of contagion, by which public opinion tends to agree with the poll. We point out that, in the absence of a poll, the process displays the feature that, after long time spans, a sequence of states occur which, when viewed locally, remain almost stationary and are characterized by large clusters of individuals of the same opinion. The running metaphor we use is that of a model of pre-electoral public opinion formation, with two candidates running. We provide some heuristic considerations on the implication that these findings could have in terms of space-time allocation of fundings in an electoral campaign.

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Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 0009.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:0009

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lee, In Ho & Valentinyi, Akos, 2000. "Noisy Contagion without Mutation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 47-56, January.
  2. Stephen Morris, . "Contagion," Penn CARESS Working Papers ab67d13cfae3b5b56b7b9df3b, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Piketty, Thomas, 2000. "Voting as Communicating," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 169-91, January.
  4. Aderlini, L. & Ianni, A., 1993. "Path Dependence and Learning from Neighbours," Papers 186, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
    Other versions:
  5. Kandori, Michihiro & Mailath, George J & Rob, Rafael, 1993. "Learning, Mutation, and Long Run Equilibria in Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 29-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ellison, Glenn, 1993. "Learning, Local Interaction, and Coordination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1047-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Blume Lawrence E., 1993. "The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 387-424, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Valentina Corradi & Antonella Ianni, . ""Ergodicity and Clustering in Opinion Formation''," CARESS Working Papres 98-10, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  9. McKelvey Richard D. & Palfrey Thomas R., 1995. "Quantal Response Equilibria for Normal Form Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 6-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stephen Morris, . "Interaction Games: A Unified Analysis of Incomplete Information, Local Interaction and Random Matching," Penn CARESS Working Papers 1879bf5487d743edef7f32bb2, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ellison, Glenn, 2000. "Basins of Attraction, Long-Run Stochastic Stability, and the Speed of Step-by-Step Evolution," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 17-45, January.
  12. repec:att:wimass:199612r is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Antonella Ianni, . ""Learning Correlated Equilibria in Potential Games''," CARESS Working Papres 98-05, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1984. "Standardization, Compatibility and Innovation," Working papers 345, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  15. Young, H Peyton, 1993. "The Evolution of Conventions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 57-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ianni, A & Corradi, V, 2001. "The Dynamics of Public Opinion Under Majority Rules," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0109, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
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