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The relative dynamics of investment and the current account in the G-7 economies

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  • Hoffmann, Mathias

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirics of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We use a cointegrated VAR framework to identify permanent and transitory components of country-specific and global shocks. Our approach allows us to empirically investigate the sensitivity to persistence implied by many forward-looking models and our results shed new light on the excess volatility of investment encountered by Glick and Rogoff (JME 1995). In G7 data, we find the relative current-account and investment response to be in line with the intertemporal approach. Keywords; intertemporal approach to the current account, cointegration, excess sensitivity, investment JEL classification: F41, F43

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 0005.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:0005

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  4. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  6. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  7. Quah, D., 1989. "Permanent And Transitory Movements In Labor Income: An Explanation For "Excess Smoothness" In Consumption," Working papers 535, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  9. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Michel Normandin & Bruno Powo Fosso, 2005. "Global versus Country-Specific Shocks and International Business Cycles," Cahiers de recherche 05-07, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  2. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca Driver, 2003. "Current Accounts, Net Foreign Assets and the Implications of Cyclical Factors," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 269-286, Spring.
  3. John C. Bluedorn, 2005. "Hurricanes: Intertemporal Trade and Capital Shocks," Economics Papers 2005-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Nitschka, Thomas, 2006. "The U.S. consumption-wealth ratio and foreign stock markets: International evidence for return predictability," Technical Reports 2006,11, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2012. "What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on the External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1062-92, April.
  6. Souki, Kaouthar & Enders, Walter, 2008. "Assessing the importance of global shocks versus country-specific shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1420-1429, December.
  7. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2013. "What drives China's current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 856-883.
  8. Elif C. Arbatli, 2008. "Futures Markets, Oil Prices and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Working Papers 08-48, Bank of Canada.

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