Globalisation of natural gas markets – effects on prices and trade patterns
AbstractThe regional natural gas markets are expected to gradually become more integrated. The major driving forces are lower LNG costs, more spot trade, and increased need for imports into the US and other key markets. In this paper we examine various scenarios for a future global gas market, particularly focusing on natural gas prices and trade patterns. We use a numerical model of the international energy markets, with detailed modelling of regional gas production and international gas transport. Scenarios with different assumptions about future demand and supply conditions are simulated. Our results suggest that trade between continents will grow considerably over the next couple of decades, and that prices in the main import regions will remain around current levels. However, significant constraints on exports from the Middle East may alter this picture.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 559.
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Natural gas trade; gas prices; numerical model;
Other versions of this item:
- Finn Roar Aune, Knut Einar Rosendahl and Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "Globalisation of Natural Gas Markets - Effects on Prices and Trade Patterns," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 39-54.
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
- Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-10-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2008-10-21 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2008-10-21 (Energy Economics)
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