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More realistic estimates of revenue changes from tax cuts

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Author Info
Thor O. Thoresen, Jørgen Aasness and Zhiyang Jia () (Statistics Norway)
Abstract

Procedures of revenue estimation of changes in the personal income tax are discussed. Using revenue estimates of the 2006 tax cuts in the personal income tax in Norway as an example, we show that estimates of costs of cuts differ substantially when different effects are brought into consideration. Estimates of revenue effects which take labor supply responses and effects through indirect taxation and corporate taxes into account are presented and contrasted with estimates obtained by current procedures. Our estimates indicate that a substantial part of the initial outlay is returned; approximately 56 percent comes back as increased tax revenues from other tax bases and increased personal income tax following from labor supply adjustments.

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 545.

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Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:545

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Related research
Keywords: tax revenue estimates; scoring procedures; microsimulation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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    Other versions:
  2. John K. Dagsvik and Zhiyang Jia, 2006. "Labor Supply as a Choice among Latent Job Opportunities. A Practical Empirical Approach," Discussion Papers 481, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2006. "Designing Optimal Taxes with a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 2468, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hutton, J P & Lambert, P J, 1980. "Evaluating Income Tax Revenue Elasticities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(363), pages 901-06, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2005. "Wage growth and income tax revenue elasticities with endogenous labour supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 21-38, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  7. Thor O. Thoresen and Annette Alstadsæter, 2008. "Shifts in organizational form under a dual income tax system," Discussion Papers 529, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Alan J. Auerbach, 2005. "Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 421-425, May. [Downloadable!]
  9. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 928, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Dagsvik, John K, 1994. "Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1205, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Benjamin R. Page, 2005. "CBO's Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of the President's Budget," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 437-440, May. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weinzierl, Matthew, 2006. "Dynamic scoring: A back-of-the-envelope guide," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1415-1433, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Rosanne Altshuler & Nicholas Bull & John Diamond & Tim Dowd & Pamela Moomau, 2005. "The Role of Dynamic Scoring in the Federal Budget Process: Closing the Gap between Theory and Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 432-436, May. [Downloadable!]
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  15. John K. Dagsvik and Steinar Strøm, 2004. "Sectoral Labor Supply, Choice Restrictions and Functional Form," Discussion Papers 388, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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