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Endogenous Housing Market Cycles

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Author Info
Trond Borgersen, Dag Einar Sommervoll and Tom Wennemo () (Statistics Norway)
Abstract

Housing markets tend to display both positive serial correlation as well as a considerable volatility over time. We present a stochastic model illustrating the connection between adaptive expectations and market fluctuations. All macro economic and demographic variables stay fixed over time and price movements are driven by expectations only. In the case where agents face unconstrained mortgage financing, the housing market oscillations are regular and depend on mortgage to income ratios. When credit institutions are introduced, which view houses as mortgage collaterals, the dynamics get complex. Periods of mild oscillations are mixed with violent collapses in an unpredictable manner.

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 458.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:458

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Related research
Keywords: Heterogeneous agents; adaptive expectation; credit score models; house price cycles;

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  1. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1988. "The Fate of Systems with "Adaptive" Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 168-72, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Satchell, Steve & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "On the optimality of adaptive expectations: Muth revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 407-416, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1990. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  6. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sonnemans, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "The Instability of a Heterogeneous Cobweb economy: a Strategy Experiment on Expectation Formation," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Peng, Vincent S., 2003. "Do housing submarkets really matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 12-28, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1991. "Endogenous Fluctuations," DELTA Working Papers 91-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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